When it comes to how the crypto market will evolve in 2026, many people are used to looking at historical K-line charts to draw conclusions. But this time, it might be different.

**Looking at historical cycles, 2026 should be a deep bear**

Data speaks: in 2014, Bitcoin dropped 58%, correcting the crazy rally of 2013; in 2018, it plummeted 73%, making up for the ICO bubble of 2017; in 2022, it fell 64%, again clearing out the DeFi chaos of 2021. Following this pattern, Bitcoin in 2026 should return to the $40,000 to $50,000 range, let alone altcoins—95% of tokens might go to zero.

Does this logic not make sense? Actually, it does. The emotional overheat caused by the four-year halving cycle indeed requires periodic cleansing.

**But the variables in 2026 are more numerous than ever**

We must admit that the market structure has quietly undergone an irreversible transformation. Now, with spot ETFs and large-scale institutional allocations, what does this mean? It means that even if the market declines, large funds like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds are automatically dollar-cost averaging at key support levels. Bitcoin trying to replicate the cliff-drop crash of 2022? That’s unlikely.

Looking at the macro environment, the differences are huge. Both 2018 and 2022 were in tightening cycles of rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, but 2026? That’s a completely different story.

U.S. debt interest payments are soaring wildly, and institutions expect that by 2026, this expense will surpass the defense budget. What does that imply? It means the Treasury must maintain ample liquidity to roll over debt. Meanwhile, the fiat money supply is growing at 5% to 7% annually—this is not speculation; it’s a fact.

**Bitcoin’s core value might be re-priced**

Bitcoin is not only a tool to hedge against centralization risks but also crucially an anti-inflation asset. This logic is increasingly recognized by institutions and could form the basis for a slow or even prolonged bull market in the future.

**Breakthroughs in application ecosystems cannot be ignored**

In 2018 and 2022, aside from hype and Bitcoin itself, there was hardly any real application support in crypto. But by 2026, the situation is completely different. We’ve seen tools like PumpFun, highly disruptive trading apps like Hyperliquid, and soaring prediction markets. Stablecoins are already integrated with PayPal.

On this foundation, crypto could see a killer app comparable to TikTok or ChatGPT, bringing hundreds of millions of new users and massive capital inflows. Such breakthroughs at the application level simply did not exist in the previous two cycles.

**From a probability perspective, how to view 2026**

If we must assign probabilities:

- 50% chance that 2026 will be a soft landing combined with a slow bull. In this scenario, holding core tokens (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Binance Coin) makes sense—no need to cut losses. Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate widely between $80,000 and $140,000. This is the most probable scenario.

- 20% chance to break the four-year cycle altogether and usher in a super bull market. In this case, the emergence of killer apps could provide unexpected catalysts.

- The remaining 30% leaves room for a repeat of history—full collapse is possible, but the probability is decreasing.

**Insights for different players**

From an institutional perspective, 2026 is a perfect window for allocation. No matter how the story unfolds, it’s worth building positions. But for retail investors used to chasing 100x coins? It’s better to adopt a bear market mindset when devising strategies, which can at least make psychological expectations more stable.