The "buy the rumor, sell the fact" characteristic of the crypto market has turned positive news into a selling opportunity. On one hand, high leverage trading has intensified volatility, with 300 million in liquidations within 24 hours and the largest single liquidation reaching 21.18 million, exposing the fragility of leveraged funds; on the other hand, institutional behavior is diverging—while MicroStrategy has spent 960 million to increase its BTC holdings, whale addresses are reducing their holdings when prices are high, and the amount of BTC transferred to exchanges is increasing.

In the face of intense volatility, market opinions are sharply divided: some believe that key support levels have shifted down to 88,500, and Standard Chartered has directly halved its 2025 target price from 300,000; optimists note that exchange reserves have fallen to their lowest levels this year, whale holdings are at an all-time high, and long-term accumulation remains strong.

Three key factors affecting future market trends:
1. Policy transmission lag: The effects of rate cuts will take 3-6 months to manifest, and the Bank of Japan's rate hike decision will be the next point of observation;
2. ETF capital flows: If net inflows slow down or turn into redemptions, downside pressure may increase;
3. Regulation and reserve dynamics: Changes in Federal Reserve leadership and discussions on Bitcoin strategic reserves in various countries could reshape market logic. Currently, the crypto market is in a collision period between traditional finance and native crypto logic. Liquidity support from rate cuts still faces uncertainties such as tariffs and geopolitical conflicts.

For investors, it is essential to grasp institutional trends while remaining vigilant against leverage risks and policy black swans. Under the backdrop of tightening liquidity at year-end, range-bound fluctuations may be the more likely near-term trend.