After BTC dropped from the 108K high, it has been grinding within a downward channel for some time.

The upper edge of the channel is pressing down at 95,000, the lower edge is around 85,000, and the current price is stuck right in the middle line—around 92,800, which also coincides with the upper edge of a symmetrical triangle. This position is quite interesting, it feels like it’s on the verge of a breakout.

**Three signals worth noting:**

For trading volume, when the price rebounded from 88K over the weekend, the 24-hour trading volume surged by 42%. First, volume increased but the price didn’t move much, then volume spiked and the price jumped up. This combination often appears at market bottoms.

On the 4-hour MACD, the fast line has already crossed above the slow line, forming a golden cross. The bars turned from red to green and then back to red, indicating momentum is switching direction.

RSI jumped directly from the oversold area at 35 to 52. Although there are some early signs of bearish divergence, it hasn’t broken 60 yet. This kind of divergence isn’t fatal for now and looks more like a shakeout.

**A few key price levels:**
93,000 is a watershed—if it holds, we can look forward to 95K to 97K.
92,800 is the toughest resistance right now and must be broken through with volume in the short term.
88,000 is the last line of defense for the bulls; holding it will make things more stable going forward.

**Two macro time points:**
The Fed meets December 9-10, and the market is pricing in an 87% chance of another 25 bps rate cut. As long as Powell doesn’t suddenly turn hawkish, this is basically money printing. Historical data shows that during the same period, BTC has averaged a 12% gain over 7 days.

The Bank of Japan is very likely to raise rates by 25bp to 0.75% on December 19, which will trigger short-term unwinding of yen carry trades. The 88K level might see another shakeout. But after that, the market will be cleaner, which is like squeezing out the pus early for the 2026 cycle.