Everyone is waiting for the Fed rate cut on Thursday, but everyone knows in their hearts that #美联储重启降息步伐 降息25基点几乎没有很大悬念，反而是降息后#Powell's speech is the real key to the future trend!

Will he hint that "this is the last cut," or will he leave the market with some hope? Every word he uses will be magnified and interpreted by the market.

After the 25 basis point cut in October, Powell warned to be alert to an inflation rebound and stressed that the December rate cut action was "far from a done deal"—since March 2021, the inflation rate has remained above the Fed's 2% target. Recently, weak labor market data and PCE data showing slowing inflation have continued to reinforce expectations of a rate cut. However, last week’s newly released US initial jobless claims hit a more than three-year low, which eased concerns about rapid labor market deterioration, but the divergent data has made Fed policy decisions even more difficult.

Many external factors have further increased the difficulty of decision-making: fiscal concerns triggered by large-scale government tax cuts and spending bills, tariff uncertainties, worries about the Fed's independence, and the ongoing 43-day government shutdown blocking the release of key economic data—all of which have heightened uncertainty around the policy path.

In this situation, the market will move entirely based on information. If Powell speaks dovishly (hinting at more cuts), then risk assets may continue to rally. The biggest fear is a "black swan": if there’s no rate cut, there’s no need for further analysis—just buckle your seatbelt.

There are still two days until the rate cut. In these two days, you have to take your chances and bet on the big market move on the day of the cut. If you win, you’ll be celebrating in style; if you lose, you won’t lose much anyway.