#美联储货币政策分析 Looking back at history, I have witnessed countless cycles of bull and bear markets. This time, with the U.S. stock market falling and the NASDAQ dropping over 2%, Bitcoin also hit a low of $86,100, which reminds me of past market turmoil. The massive outflow of Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, combined with the weakness of the U.S. stock market, has jointly driven the downtrend in the crypto assets market.

Interestingly, Bitcoin fell during the U.S. stock market opening hours and rebounded during the Asian trading session, highlighting the selling pressure from the United States. I have observed this pattern in previous cycles, which often indicates a divergence in market sentiment and potential turning points.

The Federal Reserve's policy has always been a key factor affecting the market. The market no longer expects a rate cut in December, and strong employment data has reduced the risk of rising unemployment rates. Reflecting on the quantitative easing policies after the 2008 financial crisis and the tightening cycle that began in 2018, each policy adjustment has stirred waves in the market.

Currently, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 39.6%. Behind this figure is the market's judgment on the economic outlook and expectations for policy direction. Historically, policy shifts have often marked key turning points for the market.

At this time, it is particularly important to remain calm and maintain a long-term perspective. The market always goes in cycles, with panic and euphoria alternating. We should draw wisdom from the ups and downs of the past, rationally view the current market fluctuations, and prepare for future opportunities. After all, every crisis breeds new opportunities, and every adjustment lays the foundation for the next rise.