The ETH trend in December is starting to get interesting. After the price rises above the $3070 mark, market sentiment is clearly warming up, with several factors worth following behind it.

Let's start with the technical aspects. The Fusaka upgrade is scheduled to go live on December 4th, and the biggest highlight this time is increasing the Blob capacity from 9 to 15. It sounds very technical, but the actual impact is quite direct—the Layer 2 transaction fees could be cut by 30% to 50%. Ethereum's price usually reacts before and after major upgrades, and this time should be no exception.

The macro environment is also cooperating. The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December has now reached 85%, which is basically a done deal. More importantly, Kevin Hassett, a former White House economic adviser known for his dovish stance and relatively friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies, is now a leading candidate for the position of Federal Reserve Chair. Once liquidity begins to ease, where will the funds flow first? The answer is obvious.

There are also signals on the funding side. The Ethereum spot ETF had been experiencing outflows for a while, but in the last three days, it has recorded continuous net inflows, totaling 230.9 million USD. From a technical chart perspective, the range of 2800-2830 USD has formed a relatively solid support zone, which is unlikely to be broken in the short term.

Looking back at history, the merge upgrade in September 2022 and the London upgrade that introduced EIP-1559 in August 2021 both saw significant price fluctuations around those key events. The technical narrative in the crypto market has always found buyers.

As for the price target, conservatively speaking, there shouldn't be much issue with the mid-term range of $3500-4000, while aggressive analysts have even mentioned the possibility of $6000. Of course, whether the market can break out depends on whether these catalysts can truly materialize.

Where do you think this wave can rise to?

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HodlTheDoor

· 1h ago

Well, the Fusaka upgrade this time really has something to it. If the transaction fees for Blob expansion are really cut in half, Layer 2 will definitely explode. Wait, is the Fed really going to cut interest rates? It feels like it's being said every day but no real action has been seen, I hope there won’t be a reversal again. Anyway, I’ll just see if the 2800 line can hold. If it holds, we’ll continue playing; if it breaks, then we’ll consider it a pullback. I believe in 3500-4000, but those aggressive analysts predicting 6000 can just treat it as a story, haha.

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