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The A-shares finally came to an end in November, and the strong six consecutive ups on the monthly line have also come to a halt. After looking at today's market data, I feel that December will likely still be fluctuating back and forth within the trading range.
Regarding how to proceed next week, I have a few judgments here:
Let's start with a reference frame - the走势 of the Shenzhen Component Index on January 24th of this year, today's market data is very similar to that day. Following this logic, it is very likely that we will first see some fluctuations and a pullback, and then continue to move upwards.
In the time window, the main theme should still be a rebound before December 12th. The core driving force? The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is still fermenting, and this logic has not changed for the time being.
Next Monday is highly likely to pull back. The reason is simple - the index has now hit the trendline resistance, and without an increase in volume, it wants to break through? That's not very realistic. Unless there are unexpected positive developments over the weekend, I won't change this judgment for now.
Today's rebound is actually quite awkward, with low volume and stuck at the resistance level. The trading volume is insufficient, and it's hard to push further. In this case, a pullback is actually to gather strength.
Overall, my understanding of next week's script is as follows: on Monday and Tuesday, we will first complete the pullback and shake out the floating positions, then the market will initiate a main upward wave on the 1-hour level. The pace doesn't feel too fast, but the direction should be clear.
Of course, the market is always full of uncertainties, and this is just an extrapolation based on the current signals. How it specifically unfolds still depends on closely monitoring the market data and changes in news.