Analysis: Follow the historical fair price line of $99,000, which has previously fallen below during bull-bear transitions and could not regain.

On November 27, on-chain data analyst Murphy released an analysis stating that after a strong panic sell-off, BTC is experiencing a rebound. The market is focusing on the historical fair price line of $99,000, which is the average premium of BTC relative to the average buying price throughout its history. In the previous two cycles of bull-bear transition phases, BTC rebounded multiple times after falling below the fair price line but was unable to effectively stay above it, eventually transitioning into a deep bear phase. The current selling pressure comes from two aspects: first, short-term holders who are under pressure from being tied up at high positions are cutting losses and exiting, exacerbating the fermentation of market panic. On the 21st, an unprecedented level of panic selling was already observed. Second, there is the selling of long-term profit holders; even though BTC has retraced over 30% from its highs, most long-term holders still hold a large amount of unrealized gains.