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Recently, there has been a big rumor in the market: if Trump returns to the White House, he might launch an economic stimulus plan worth up to 20 trillion dollars. How exaggerated is this figure? It accounts for more than 60% of the US GDP. To be honest, if this really happens, the logic of global asset pricing would have to be rewritten.
A friend who does quantitative trading specifically talked about this yesterday. His judgment is that many people are feeling anxious due to short-term fluctuations, but if we look at it from a larger cycle, this round of market may have just started.
A simple calculation: with massive fiscal stimulus combined with the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, to what extent will liquidity increase? Historical experience tells us that every time there is a global monetary easing, crypto assets tend to perform most aggressively. After the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, institutional funds have been looking for reasons to enter the market, and this macro narrative has provided them with ample ammunition.
What's even more interesting is the current market sentiment. On one side, there are voices worrying about a pullback after a significant rise, while on the other side, experienced players who have gone through several cycles are quietly increasing their positions. From past patterns, when most people are still hesitating and observing, opportunities are often right in front of them.
Do you think this wave of policy expectations can completely ignite market sentiment? Have you adjusted your positions?
Share your thoughts.