Fed's "scattershot" divergence: Powell goes silent, December rate cuts become the "Schrodinger's policy"

Currently, the ratio of support to opposition for interest rate cuts in the FOMC is 4:5. The probability of pausing interest rate cuts in December has gained the upper hand, but the most crucial point is that Powell has "gone dark"—this former market focus, the "cosmic main camera," has now become the "last swing vote" in the FOMC.

He previously used the metaphor "slow down in heavy fog" to describe cautious policies. Now, the core logic of his silence is very realistic: the market will anticipate policy expectations in advance, and as he approaches retirement, he neither wants to make big moves at the end of his term nor bear the brunt of subsequent risks—after all, in May next year, Trump is likely to replace him with someone else as chairman. The "hot potato" of inflation is better left for the next person to take over.

This kind of "everyone speaks their mind" division is essentially the Fed's complete loss of focus on the trade-off between "inflation vs employment," and the market can only be pulled back and forth in vague expectations.
#十二月降息预测