The market has suddenly gone crazy! Just in the past few days, a number has made everyone restless—the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has skyrocketed from less than 30% to 71.3%. What does this mean? It's equivalent to the market voting with real money, betting that the Fed is really going to ease up this time.

Sudden change, Fed officials suddenly "flip-flop".

This wave of market movement came unexpectedly. Williams from the New York Fed spoke first, saying that the labor market is a bit precarious and inflation is not as alarming. As soon as he finished speaking, other core members joined in a dovish chorus. The market sensed blood in the water, and funds immediately became restless.

Wall Street Carnival Night, the money is already on the way.

All three major U.S. stock indices surged collectively, with the Nasdaq at one point climbing over 2%. Even more exaggerated, traders have already begun betting that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points by January next year. Once the floodgates of easing are opened, this money will flow like a torrent and will need somewhere to go.

Where should money run to? These places are the most dangerous.

History does not lie. Looking back at the past few rounds of Fed rate cuts, Hong Kong stocks have always been the strongest, averaging a 31.7% increase over 12 months. Now, with the Hang Seng Tech Index valuation at rock bottom and the cost of USD financing about to decrease, Hong Kong stocks are likely to take off this time.

South Korea's HBM chips and Taiwan's advanced manufacturing processes, these technological hard currencies will also be targeted by capital. The window period for emerging markets may be in these few months.

Of course, the crypto market will not miss out on this feast. As risk assets, BTC and ETH often react first under the expectation of liquidity easing. A rate cut means a weaker dollar and lower funding costs. Historically, every time the Fed shifts to easing, cryptocurrencies have seen a strong performance. Will this time be an exception?

Don't celebrate too early, the pit is still ahead.

But don't just get excited. Some officials are pouring cold water, saying that a rate cut in December is too hasty. What's worse is that inflation data could fluctuate at any time, and if expectations fall short, the market could crash even faster than it rises.

On December 10th, the answer will be revealed.

Only a few days are left until that key meeting. Global capital is frantically reallocating, some are fully invested while others are setting stop-losses. This game ignited by the Fed, will it ultimately be a feast or a trap?

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