The monitoring panel just flashed a red light - a whale address that has been tracked for a long time moved, a total of 10 million XPL.

To be honest, seeing a transfer of this magnitude, the first reaction is indeed a racing heart: Is someone going to run away? Should I withdraw first? But after spending some time in the Plasma ecosystem, you will find that every move by the big players is worth thinking about twice. Just looking at that surface level makes it easy to be tricked.

You need to clarify three things: which pool the money comes from, which pocket it ultimately lands in, and why it happens to be at this particular moment.

The worst-case scenario is something everyone can think of - directly crashing the market to cash out. I scrolled down the on-chain records and found that this money eventually went into the hot wallet of a leading exchange. What does this kind of operation generally mean? Preparing to cash out. XPL has been stuck around 1.2 for almost half a month now, with obvious selling pressure above, and the support line at 1.15 is also not very stable. This 10 million coins, when calculated at the current price, exceed ten million dollars. If it is really dumped all at once, the support at 1.15 is likely to fail, and what follows will be a wave of liquidations and emotional collapse.

This logic sounds reasonable, right? But there's a catch—when a whale moves their coins to an exchange, it doesn't mean they're going to sell in the next second. Sometimes it's just to park somewhere else, or to put it more conspiratorially, to see if retail investors will panic first.