#比特币波动性 $BTC $ETH $MAV

Late-night news reports indicate there are clear internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve over the direction of monetary policy in December.

According to the latest data from the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has climbed to 71%. Even more notable, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by January next year has reached 58%, and there is even a 22% chance of a direct 50-basis-point cut.

However, it is clear that the Fed has not reached a consensus.

Boston Fed President Collins recently stated publicly that inflationary pressures still exist, and she remains cautious about whether a rate cut in December is warranted. On the other hand, New York Fed President Williams takes the opposite stance, believing that there are signs of a cooling labor market and that continued rate cuts are necessary.

On the liquidity front, although short-term pressure has eased somewhat, the sudden repo market crisis of 2019 is still fresh in memory. It is reported that the Fed is already prepared with emergency measures and will intervene in the market with reverse repo tools if necessary.

Two key dates to watch:
- December 1: Possible halt to balance sheet reduction
- December 8: Rate cut decision announcement

How will the Fed's internal policy disagreement play out this time? Will the rate cut cycle really start in December? What impact will this have on the crypto market?

What do you think?
Is it time to position or wait and see?
Which tokens could benefit the most?

Risk Warning: This article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks; decisions should be made cautiously.