A Bank of Japan rate hike in December is pretty much a done deal. Why is this worth paying attention to? Because the yen’s long-term ultra-low interest rates have long made it the financing tool of choice for global investors.

The operation is simple: use assets as collateral to borrow yen, then exchange it for dollars and pour it into the U.S. stock market. This kind of arbitrage capital is massive in scale and has supported much of the gains in U.S. stocks. But the game is about to change—once the Bank of Japan really raises rates, the cost of borrowing yen will soar. Those who previously leveraged low-interest yen will inevitably sell U.S. stocks to raise funds and pay back their debts; otherwise, they won’t be able to handle the interest pressure.

This isn’t just a subjective prediction, but a fundamental mechanism of market linkage. If U.S. stocks come under pressure, can Bitcoin stay immune? Think again. BTC is essentially an overflow pool for risk capital from U.S. stocks—if the big brother can’t hold up, how can the little brother have a good time? The market transmission chain is right there, and the logic is very clear.