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A power game is unfolding within the Fed.
Cleveland Fed chief Harker was blunt: continue to cut rates? That would be actively fueling inflation. Kansas's Schmidt was even harsher, casting a direct no vote in October. The hawks have gained the upper hand, while the doves? Their voices are basically inaudible.
Worse yet, their internal consensus has collapsed.
Nick Timiraos, a journalist referred to as the "new mouthpiece of the Fed," said it plainly—decision-makers themselves are unclear. The September non-farm data is simply schizophrenic: there were 119,000 new jobs added, more than double expectations; yet the unemployment rate soared to 4.4%, the highest point in four years. This contradictory data has put decision-makers in a deadlock.
**A certain mainstream platform token can no longer hold on**
The entire market is bleeding, and a certain mainstream platform token has not been spared. The price has fallen below $830, plummeting by 3.51% in 24 hours.
The RSI indicator has dropped to 29.78. It is in the oversold area and is the deepest oversold reading in recent times.
The current battlefield is near the 200-day moving average. If the line at $790.79 is held, there may still be a chance for a technical rebound. What if it is lost? The $750-760 area will be the next stop. Traders are watching for leverage resets and volatility signals, and open contracts are decreasing — everyone is retreating.
**December, Showdown Moment**
The December FOMC meeting is no longer a routine operation; this time it is a true life-and-death judgment.
Wall Street now generally believes that high interest rates will last longer. If the Fed really hits the pause button, it means that the current rate-cutting cycle in 2024 may end earlier than expected. With inflation still at 3%, sticking to not lowering rates could prolong the era of high interest rates longer than anyone anticipated.
When the tide of liquidity goes out, the naked swimmers will be exposed.
Is this market crash the end of a cycle or the beginning of a new one? The market is waiting for an answer.