**Bitcoin has evaporated 35% in a month and a half, what exactly is going on with this "perfect storm"?**

From the historical high on October 7, it almost fell below 80,000 dollars yesterday—over the span of 46 days, BTC has forcibly cut off more than a third of its market value. Although it has barely crawled back to around 85,000 dollars now, you can feel that the entire market is still trembling.

This is not just a simple technical pullback. Three cold waves hit at the same time, and no one can withstand it.

**Is the AI myth starting to collapse?**

Let's first talk about the chain reaction in the tech stocks sector. NVIDIA has recently come under scrutiny—accounts receivable are piling up alarmingly, and cash conversion rates are even worse than its peers. What's worse is that several AI companies have been exposed for playing the "left hand to right hand" trick: using funds in a circular manner and counting revenue repeatedly. Institutions noticed something was off and sold off NVIDIA faster than anyone else.

When the AI sector collapses, the US stock market suffers as well. Although last night Federal Reserve officials and NVIDIA's CEO came out one after another to reassure the public, the phrase "AI bubble" has become an unshakeable curse. Once the logic of risk assets is shaken, can the crypto market remain unscathed? That's wishful thinking.

**ETF funds are fleeing madly**

A more direct blow comes from the funding side. BlackRock's IBIT saw a net outflow of $523 million in a single day on the 19th — the largest single-day outflow record in its history. Throughout December, the cumulative outflow has surpassed $2.5 billion.

Data shows that the main force behind this wave of selling is not institutions, but rather retail investors in the US stock market. They are collectively liquidating Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, directly putting selling pressure on the market. As for the natives of the crypto circle? In this month and a half of continuous decline, they've lost so much that they can't find their way, and their emotions have dropped to freezing point.

**On a macro level, it's a complete mess**

The U.S. government has just ended its longest shutdown in history—43 days! Key economic data has all been delayed, and the market is driving blindfolded.

After a long wait for the September non-farm payroll data, the number of jobs suddenly surged by 119,000, which startled the Federal Reserve: inflation hasn't been completely suppressed, and the job market is so strong? Will interest rates still be cut?

Traders' expectations have been ruined: at the beginning of the month, everyone confidently bet on a 70% probability of a rate cut in December, but just a few days later it fell to 30%, and some even started betting that "there simply won't be any cuts this year."

Dramatically, just early this morning, several Federal Reserve officials suddenly turned dovish, and the interest rate cut expectations soared back to 71.3%. The market is left in a state of confusion due to this back-and-forth - are you saying that funds still dare to enter?

**Written at the end**

This crash was not caused by a single factor. The collapse of the AI narrative has dampened risk appetite, the outflow of ETF funds has drained liquidity, and the uncertain macro policies have created panic—three negative factors stacked together have resulted in a textbook-level "liquidity massacre."

The current $85,000 feels more like a breather than a reversal. The market is still waiting for a clear signal: whether the Federal Reserve provides clear guidance, or if the AI sector regains confidence, or if ETF funds stop the bleeding. Until then, volatility is likely to continue.