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Economists: The US labor market is still struggling to support, and the September US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data is likely to conceal the overall weakness.


On November 20, it was reported that the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) for September is expected to increase by 50,000 jobs, a rebound from the 22,000 jobs reported in early August. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the auditing and consulting firm RSM, stated that the September data, along with revisions for July and August, will show that the employment outlook is slightly better than generally expected, but still far from being commendable; the labor market is still struggling to support itself, and so is the overall US economy. The economy is trudging along amid widespread uncertainty, and due to the prolonged duration of the government shutdown, accurate data reflecting the true state of the labor market may not be available until early February next year. Based on data disclosed by private institutions, Goldman Sachs holds a more optimistic view than market expectations, predicting an increase of 80,000 non-farm jobs for September, but estimating a decrease of 50,000 jobs in October, mainly due to the expiration of the government's "delayed resignation plan." Goldman Sachs economist Lindell stated that although it is expected that the labor department will not release the October unemployment rate, estimates indicate that the unemployment rate is likely to rise. This reflects that temporary layoffs caused by the government shutdown have pushed up the unemployment rate, while the overall scale of labor market underutilization is also expanding.
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