#加密市场观察 According to CME's "Fed Watch," as of 7:00 AM Beijing time on November 17, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December has fallen below 50%, standing at only 44.4%. Analysts point out that the increasing divisions within the Fed have added significant uncertainty to the December policy meeting. Goldman Sachs analysts warn that insufficient data has disrupted the previously expected pace of rate cuts, and the initial expectation of "a rate cut in December and a pause in January" now carries great uncertainty. James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, believes that the Fed's decision-making mechanism is undergoing a structural transformation, with core power shifting from the individual chairperson to a collective committee vote. Recently, the market's expectation probability for a December rate cut has declined from 70% to 42%, and the key factor is not the economic data itself, but the changing voting tendencies within the FOMC. However, after the U.S. government "shutdown" ended, a large amount of economic data will be released in a concentrated manner, providing critical evidence for the market and the Fed to assess the state of the U.S. economy. According to the detailed schedule already published by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Labor, data releases will begin to unfold starting Thursday. At that time, the market will reprice the Fed's future rate cut path. Morgan Stanley predicts that before the December policy meeting, the Fed will obtain complete data on U.S. employment, inflation, retail sales, and the preliminary GDP for the third quarter from September, with the key being whether the October and November employment reports can be released in a timely manner.