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Don't remind me again today

Recently, two pieces of news have caused many people to rethink their position allocation.



The United States may finalize a key trade agreement before Thanksgiving, while Japan is taking a more direct approach—launching a 17 trillion yen economic stimulus package, which is approximately 110 billion dollars. Both major economies are injecting liquidity into the market at the same time, which is not a simple matter.

Looking through historical data, during the global monetary easing in 2020, Bitcoin surged over 8 times from its bottom, while mainstream DeFi protocols averaged over 20 times increase, with several leading cross-chain projects even reaching 50 times. Of course, history will not copy itself exactly, but the logic of capital flow is usually quite similar.

If you really want to layout, you will probably have to follow a few clues:

First of all, for basic assets like BTC and ETH, during each liquidity easing cycle, money will first flow here. It is recommended to allocate at least 60% as a starting point, as this is the ballast.

Secondly, cross-chain infrastructure may benefit. After the trade agreement is implemented, the demand for cross-border capital flow will increase, and those protocols that solve interoperability issues will theoretically reap the rewards. This part can allocate two to three percent for trend positions.

Finally, the Japan local concept can keep a small Position for observation. After all, the stimulus plan is solid, and the popular targets on local compliant exchanges are worth paying attention to, but do not exceed 10%, as the risk-reward ratio needs to be controlled.

During the time window, considering the Thanksgiving period and the progress of policy implementation in Japan, this period may be a crucial layout phase.

What is your current status? Have you already heavily invested, or are you gradually building your position in batches, or are you still waiting for clearer signals? Share your allocation ideas and the direction you are most optimistic about in the comments.
BTC-5.62%
ETH-5.52%
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MetaMiseryvip
· 11-17 02:04
Back to this trap again? I believe in history repeating itself, but can this really replicate the miracles of 20 times or 50 times? Bro, you're thinking a bit too much.
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BoredWatchervip
· 11-16 19:51
Wait, did that round really rise so sharply in 2020? I don’t remember keeping up with it, will it be too late to get in now?
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AirdropHuntressvip
· 11-16 19:51
$110 billion injection sounds amazing, but the history of Bitcoin has never been that simple. For cross-chain, I think it depends on which specific projects, those with problematic tokenomics should have died long ago. I haven't paid much attention to Japanese concept stocks; it feels like another capital game, and the risk-reward ratio really needs to be calculated. I agree with the 60% BTC as ballast; foundational assets should be allocated like this, everything else is just a gamble. The window period around Thanksgiving is true, but don't get stirred up to enter a heavy position; I've already suffered losses a few times. --- Data shows that last cycle had such high gains; I really don't know what percentage can be replicated this round. The key also depends on how wallet addresses move; retail investors always follow as the last wave. --- 60% BTC is reliable; the rest I will handle, not being greedy is the most crucial point. Observe cross-chain projects first; don't rush to enter a position. --- After research and analysis, this cycle is indeed different from 2020; the environment is completely different. The attitude of capital parties has been negative, lacking trust. --- That 1.7 trillion yen in Japan sounds like a lot when converted to USD, but I have doubts about how big a wave it can stir when spread across the market.
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down_only_larryvip
· 11-16 19:44
Here comes the trap again? The historical data looks good, but can this round really replicate the wave of 2020? I'm skeptical.
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ChainPoetvip
· 11-16 19:38
Sixty percent BTC as ballast, cross-chain riding the trend, just watching the Japanese concept is enough, I can accept this logic. Now it's just waiting for the real signals during Thanksgiving, otherwise it's all just talk. I have already laid in ambush in the cross-chain area, after all, historical experience is there, if anyone missed that wave in 2020, it's on them. That 110 billion dollars from Japan, when converted, is really not small, but how much can flow into the crypto world is a question mark. A 60-40 ratio is stable, just afraid of missing the acceleration phase and having a blown mindset. The difference this time is that macro expectations are clearer, not blindly point shaving. It feels like next week we need to watch the movements from the U.S., the Japanese stimulus package is already set, just waiting for implementation.
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BlindBoxVictimvip
· 11-16 19:38
60% BTC ETH as ballast, I agree with this logic. However, I feel that the cross-chain part is a bit overly optimistic; there have been similar expected results before, and it turned out like this...
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NftRegretMachinevip
· 11-16 19:37
Wait, 170 trillion yen? That's quite a scale, but we should also be clear-headed; those who didn't make money in that wave in 2020 deserved it. Right now, I'm just holding onto 60% of my BTC and trying out the rest in the cross-chain area; I'm really not interested in the Japanese concept. It feels different this time compared to 2020; while liquidity is loose, the market is no longer the same market. I'm a bit worried that even if more money is thrown in, it won't pump.
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