I was awakened by my phone vibrating at two in the morning.

Paper loss of 80,000 - it took me three years to accumulate this little profit from my online store.

5 $BTC, it was still rising the day before yesterday, and now it's just given me a roller coaster. My finger is hovering over the close position button, shaking badly. The investment group is full of people crying and complaining, and I'm panicking too.

Until I saw a message from an old client in finance: "Don't rush to cut losses, see what the U.S. bonds and the Federal Reserve are doing."

I called him. His voice was quite steady: "$170 billion in US debt issuance, like a pump sucking out market liquidity. High-risk assets like Bitcoin are the first to run when funds tighten. Plus, with the Fed sending hawkish signals, there's no chance of interest rate cuts, making it even harder for money to come in."

He threw a few data links at me. That's when I realized that the "U.S. Treasury auction" news I came across a few days ago wasn't just idle talk.

"But this is not a collapse." He continued, "The pool is just temporarily lacking water. Once the government accounts are restored and liquidity returns, prices will naturally stabilize. If you look at the on-chain data, the big players haven't dumped, they're just temporarily hiding out."

I didn't cut.

Instead, divide the reserve funds into five parts and replenish once every 5% drop. With this understanding, my hands won't shake.

A week later, the US Treasury TGA funding landed, and $BTC rebounded. Not only did I break even, but I also made a small profit.

Since then, it has become a habit to check the issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds and the dynamics of the Federal Reserve before going to bed.

In 2023, Bitcoin lingered around $18,000 for a long time. I noticed that the Federal Reserve's reverse repos were shrinking, indicating that the market was no longer so short on cash – I decisively increased my position. By the following year, when it surged to $35,000, I took profits in batches, doubling my account.

Now I understand:

The price of currency is like the sea surface, and the fluctuations are just appearances.

What we should really focus on are the ocean currents—how U.S. debt is issued, how the Federal Reserve moves, and where liquidity flows.

Understanding these, even the largest fluctuations are just noise.

When the logic is clear, luck becomes unimportant.