The historical trajectory of Bitcoin can indeed be traced, but the market never follows a script.

Looking back at the two cycles: in 2017, it surged to 19,800 USD, and the following year it plummeted to 3,100 USD. After reaching a high of 69,800 USD in 2021, it fell back to 15,500 USD the next year. As for altcoins? From the frenzy of tens of thousands of coins back then, to the dance of thousands later, last year only a little over a hundred were still struggling, with many projects silently going to zero.

Will this round rewrite the rules?

The way institutional funds operate has completely disrupted the traditional cycles. With tens of billions to over a hundred billion in and out of ETFs every day, do you think these Wall Street giants will honestly pump the market according to the "four-year cycle chart" drawn by retail investors?

Don't be naive. When the entire network is talking about a precise prophecy like "the peak on October 6, 2025", it's highly likely that it's a setup by the big players.

How fierce is the tug-of-war between bulls and bears right now? The market is shouting about breaking below $88,000, but the manipulators won't let you buy the dip. They might even give you a false breakout at $90,000 first, and then blow up all the short positions. Exchanges hold unlimited chips and liquidity; where do the liquidated orders go in the end? Everyone has an idea.

Prepare for the worst: Once it falls below $50,000, those high-leverage players will directly explode, and the chain reaction may trigger a sell-off.

The technical outlook is also not optimistic. The daily line has already broken below the trend line, and a head and shoulders pattern is subtly forming. 80,000 is not impossible. But don't rush to short—weekly support is still holding around 94,277. It's more stable to wait for a rebound to the 97,000 area before shorting.

The truth is cruel: bull markets do not rise indefinitely, and bear markets do not fall to the core of the earth. When most people fall into despair, opportunities are often brewing. Don't chase after the rise, don't panic during the fall, and accumulating spot coins in batches is the hard truth to navigate through cycles.

Can this year's Christmas market save the situation? How much can the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut turn things around?