#美国终止政府关闭 💣 The Fed suddenly changes its stance, is a rate cut in December uncertain?

Last night, a series of operations left me bewildered. Several Fed officials took turns making statements, and the hawkish tone was overwhelming, causing the market expectations to be completely shattered.

Let's first look at how harsh the numbers are:
• The probability of a rate cut in December has been halved, now at 50.7%.
• The likelihood of holding steady has soared to 49.3%, almost a fifty-fifty split.
• The probability of it being dragged to January next year is already 30%.

Let's listen to what these big shots said last night —

Kashkari fired the first shot: "I disagreed with the rate cut in October! The economy is not that weak, it should have been stabilized at that time!" What does it mean? They should have hit the brakes long ago.

Hamak followed up with intensity: "Monetary policy must maintain a tight stance; don't think about loosening until the inflation problem is resolved." He also added a comment about the depreciation of the dollar—"A slight drop is normal; it had risen too absurdly recently."

Although Musalem spoke more tactfully, the meaning is clear: "We have to take it slow from here, there really isn't much room for rate cuts." The implication is that we shouldn't expect any easing.

🔍 Translated into human language is:
The hawks within the Fed are gaining the upper hand. Economic resilience has exceeded expectations, inflation is quite stubborn, and the prospect of interest rate cuts is becoming increasingly difficult. The previously imagined easing cycle by the market may be a pipe dream.

⚡ What does this mean for us?
• If the US dollar rises again, there will be significant pressure on risk assets (you know what I mean)
• The expectation of interest rate cuts cooling down = liquidity tightening, and volatility may increase.

The next two time points to keep an eye on are:
✔ December 10th FOMC meeting - the last opportunity of the year
✔ January 28 meeting next year - How to take the first shot of the New Year

Do you think there will be a rate cut in December? Let's discuss our views. $ETH $BNB $XRP