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Recently, I noticed data on Polymarket indicating that the US government shutdown is likely to end within 2 to 5 days.
Once the shutdown is over, market certainty will return, and money will naturally flow in. Looking back at the historical records from 2019: after the government shutdown ended that year, the Nasdaq soared all the way up, gaining a total of 180% by November 2021. At that time, Bitcoin also reached the previous cycle's high of $69,000.
In this cycle, the macro environment somewhat resembles Trump's first term. After the shutdown ends, it is highly likely that it will be followed by a combination of quantitative easing and rate cuts—that is, the Federal Reserve will loosen monetary policy, and market liquidity will be pumped to the max.
More importantly, the mid-term elections are just around the corner. Trump will definitely not let the economy crash into a recession at this critical juncture to win votes.
So, my judgment? Continue to be bullish!