#GovShutdownCrisisNearsAnEnd? #BitcoinPriceAnalysis

News That Took Bitcoin to $106,000: Lockdown Hopes and Trump Dividend Rhetoric.

Bitcoin price fell hard at the beginning of the week. However, with the recovery over the weekend, the losses were regained significantly and the price stabilized at $106,000. While the weekly decline was close to -10%, it eventually closed at -4.99%.

The recovery was triggered by news that the US government shutdown would soon end and a post by President Trump on social media.

'Big Short' Allegations Triggered the First Drop

The initial decline was triggered by worsening investor sentiment in the US stock market. On Tuesday, news broke that famed bearish investor Michael Burry had opened a $1.2 billion short position in AI shares. This prompted skeptical investors to sell and caused declines in all three major US stock indexes.

Although the main problem was with AI stocks, the cryptocurrency sector suffered a steeper decline: BTC fell about 5% that day, while altcoins recorded higher losses.

On-chain analysts attributed the sharp decline to an exodus of institutional investors. Major players have been reducing their crypto positions since the “Black Friday” crash on October 10. Then, on Tuesday, stock market volatility caused the already fragile supply-demand balance to collapse.

Market instability quickly worsened, and on Wednesday Bitcoin fell below the psychological $100,000 support and fell to $99,000.

365-Day MA Holds as Critical Support

Analysts watched anxiously, knowing that any further declines would break the 365-day Moving Average (MA) line—this usually signals the beginning of a bear market.

Fortunately, the current decline has not crossed this line. Bitcoin found support from here and successfully held the 365-day MA as it did during the Yen carry trade unraveling in August 2024 and the tariff crisis in April 2025.

Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency

It fell to $3,100 on Wednesday. However, it recovered along with Bitcoin, rising above $3,600 on Sunday, with a weekly loss of -6.55%.

Government Shutdown Solution: Becoming Essential Catalyst

Throughout the long recession, analysts waited hopefully for the end of the U.S. government shutdown. Because this closure was thought to reduce market liquidity and lead to a halt in government spending.

Nearly 750,000 federal employees were furloughed due to the closure, and there was a 10% increase in flight delays due to pay cuts for air traffic controllers. As a result, this disrupted important support programs.

The pause in US fiscal policy worsened market liquidity and the cryptocurrency industry was affected by this situation. The resolution of the close will be a potential catalyst for a strong bullish reversal.

That belief was confirmed Sunday, as Senate Majority Leader John Thune hinted at the possibility of the shutdown ending. The news immediately sparked a Bitcoin rally. Thune's statements significantly changed the closing date in question; The closing expiration date shifted from November 20 to November 11.

Trump's Dividend Claims Increase Buying Appetite.

Simultaneously, a post by President Trump on social media provided another catalyst. 'People who oppose tariffs are stupid!... A dividend of at least $2,000 per person (excluding high-income people!),' Trump wrote.

The expectation that citizens will receive direct cash payments gave rise to the idea that this money would be channeled into stock market or cryptocurrency investments. This possibility immediately pushed Bitcoin from $103,000 to over $105,000.

Next Week: Politics and the Fed

The most critical factor this week is whether the US government shutdown will end quickly. The first procedural vote in the congress is expected to be held on Tuesday. The impact of these data will be limited for now, as the shutdown has paused most US macro data collection for more than a month.

Attention is focused on the possibility of a Fed rate cut at the FOMC meeting in December. Several influential Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, including:

On Monday, Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed President) and Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed President),

Wednesday features John Williams (New York Fed President), Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed President), Raphael Bostic, Chris Waller, Stephen Miran and Susan Collins.

The content of these conversations is expected to significantly affect Bitcoin's volatility.