Weekend Market Observation

Bitcoin and Ethereum have been experiencing oscillating upward movements recently, but don't get too excited yet—technical signals are quite mixed, and resistance levels are still present overhead, so be prepared for a potential pullback.

From the daily chart, the KDJ has just formed a golden cross and is slightly trending higher, and the 5-day moving average is also showing a slight upward turn, indicating some short-term rebound strength. However, the Bollinger Bands remain pressed downward, making the ceiling of this rebound quite evident.

Looking at the 12-hour cycle: the KDJ golden cross continues its upward momentum, and the MACD's DIF and DEA lines are rising in sync below the waterline, creating resonance, with the 5-day moving average turning stronger, indicating increased short-term support. But the 30-day moving average remains in a downward trend, exerting resistance, and selling pressure above is gradually accumulating.

My personal view is that this rebound is more like a "consolidation phase," and once this upward momentum is exhausted, a new wave of significant decline is likely to follow.

Tonight's Short-term Strategy

Core approach: sell on rallies, seize rebound opportunities to short

- Bitcoin: look for short entry points in the 103,800-104,500 range, targeting a drop to 102,300
- Ethereum: consider short positions in the 3,550-3,580 range, with a target of 3,350

US ADP employment data exceeded expectations, adding some uncertainty to the market. Be cautious with position sizing.