#ETHReboundSoon?

Ethereum price has spent most of October struggling to build strength above $4,000. Despite holding its broader uptrend, ETH trades around $3,935 at press time, down 6.6% this week, showing hesitation as Bitcoin recovers.

The signals on-chain and on the chart tell a clear story: Ethereum’s rally is still waiting for confirmation. Here are three reasons why ETH hasn’t broken $4,000 in the near term with conviction and why the real test lies slightly higher.

Whales Are Selling, And Accumulation Has Slowed Down
The first sign of pressure comes from Ethereum’s largest holders. Since October 20, whale addresses have reduced their combined holdings from 100.60 million ETH to 100.46 million ETH a drop of about 140,000 ETH, or roughly $550 million at current prices. This steady selling adds quiet resistance to any short-term rally attempt and keeps the market cautious

At the same time, Ethereum’s Holder Accumulation Ratio (HAR) which tracks the share of active holders adding to their positions versus trimming them has stalled near 30.77%. It had been rising earlier in October but has flattened since mid-month, showing that new accumulation is slowing. In simple terms, existing holders are not buying aggressively, and fresh money isn’t stepping in yet.

When the HAR trends sideways after a steady climb, it often signals that traders are waiting for a clear breakout before committing again. This cautious stance from both whales and active holders explains Ethereum’s recent hesitation near $4,000.

Heavy Resistance Band Above $3,955 Keeps Price In Check
The second reason lies in Ethereum’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) map a tool that shows where most ETH supply last changed hands. This helps identify “supply walls,” or price zones where many holders might sell to recover earlier losses.

Right now, a dense resistance band exists between $3,955 and $4,015, with about 1.06 million ETH purchased in this range. This makes the area just above the current ETH price difficult to break, as every move toward $4,000 brings more selling pressure.

But this isn’t the only challenge. Another large cluster sits between $4,270 and $4,314, where nearly 1.33 million ETH were bought. This second zone aligns closely with the technical resistance at $4,340 (which we will discuss later), meaning Ethereum could face its true breakout test there.

Until ETH clears these layers, traders are likely to keep taking profits near $4,000, preventing any sustained move higher.