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With the release of the latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, the focus of the financial markets has shifted to the upcoming interest rate cut decision. The current market consensus seems to have formed — a 25 basis point cut is likely to be seen next week. However, behind this seemingly Favourable Information lies a potential disappointment factor.
In fact, the extent of this rate cut may not be as significant as the market had previously anticipated. In other words, this decision may be viewed as 'in line with expectations' or 'below expectations', rather than an exciting surprise. This disappointment in expectations could have a negative impact on market sentiment.
Recently, the performance of Bitcoin has not been very strong. Its relatively stable trend is largely supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, which also explains why it has not experienced a significant decline. However, if the interest rate cut next week is only 25 basis points, we may see a brief rise in Bitcoin prices followed by a subsequent correction.
In this case, the market may shift its attention to the possibility of larger rate cuts in the future. Investors and traders need to closely monitor the central bank's policy signals and economic data to better predict the future direction of the market.
Overall, while interest rate cuts are generally seen as Favourable Information, in the current situation, the market's expectation of a larger rate cut may lead to disappointment regarding actual decisions. This reminds us that when interpreting economic data and policy decisions, we should not only look at the surface numbers but also consider market expectations and potential psychological impacts.