3月2日消息，随着中东局势升级，霍尔木兹海峡成为全球石油供应焦点，美国总统特朗普预测与伊朗的冲突可能持续四周。航运巨头马士基暂停所有经由该海峡的运输，全球约20%的原油供应面临潜在中断。油轮保险费飙升，交易员已将可能的供应冲击计入油价波动，高盛预计原油价格未来一个月可能在每桶70至150美元之间波动。
市场分析指出，油价上涨不仅影响能源领域，更可能通过流动性收紧传导至比特币市场。原油价格走高会抬升运输和制造成本，推动CPI数据上行，迫使各国央行延缓宽松政策，进而推高国债收益率，流动性收紧。这对比特币等高贝塔资产构成压力，因为资金可能从数字资产和股票市场流向债券市场。
彭博社分析师表示，数字资产交易员正警惕油价上涨可能引发的连锁反应，去杠杆化风险显著。如果收益率和油价同步上行，比特币和山寨币的杠杆头寸可能快速被平仓。BeInCrypto提醒，油价冲击可通过机械传导机制影响市场：油价上涨→通胀上升→降息减少→收益率上升→流动性收紧。
此外，地缘政治风险仍在叠加，冲突可能扩散至更广泛的贸易和金融环境，加大全球经济压力。未来四周，比特币价格走势可能高度依赖霍尔木兹海峡的局势变化。一旦中断缓解、油价回稳，市场风险偏好或将快速恢复；反之，持续紧张可能将原本的地缘政治噪音转化为实际的流动性冲击，数字资产首当其冲承压。
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