2026-02-28 07:00至07:15（UTC），ETH价格在15分钟内快速上涨，区间波动率为1.56%，最低1835.12 USDT，最高1863.79 USDT，收益率达+1.10%，市场关注度明显提升，短线资金活跃度带动波动加剧。
本次异动的主要驱动力是巨鲸加仓和链上筹码大量集中。链上数据显示约250万ETH流入“只进不出”巨鲸地址，筹码集中度大幅提升，资金端对当前价格区间表现出强烈认可。同时，交易所净流出，流通供给收缩，加强价格支撑。衍生品市场方面，杠杆结构发生变化，部分空头仓位被挤出，多头主动推涨，释放反弹空间，进一步刺激了现货端的拉升。
此外，链上活跃度指标创半年新高，新钱包日增超38万个，增量资金持续流入带来需求支撑。ETH 365天MVRV跌至-37%，触及历史极端负值，吸引中长期价值投资者低位布局。社交情绪极度悲观，负面评论占比创新高，恐慌情绪释放后往往形成抛压出清，触发反弹。另外，BTC市场主导资金轮动，部分资金在比特币盘整时流入ETH，多重因素共振放大了价格异动幅度。
当前短线波动风险仍需关注，短期获利盘回吐可能带来局部回调。建议持续关注网络活跃度、链上资金流向、关键价格支撑与阻力区间，以及宏观政策动态。投资者应警惕情绪反复和突发事件带来的剧烈波动，密切追踪市场最新行情与链上指标。
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