Polymarket traders earn millions predicting with Google searches, reigniting insider trading controversy

On the Polymarket platform, a trader earned nearly $1 million by accurately predicting Google search rankings for 2025, sparking controversy over insider trading in prediction markets. The trader, with the wallet address “0xafEe” (formerly known as “AlphaRaccoon”), successfully predicted the outcomes of almost all Google search trend markets, including some obscure options.

The trader’s biggest win came from correctly predicting the “yes” option that d4vd (a 20-year-old singer) would be the most searched person in 2025, turning a $10,647 bet into nearly $200,000. Meanwhile, large profits were also made by betting on the “no” options for figures such as Bianca Censori, Pope Leo XIV, and Trump.

Meta engineer Jeong Haeju exposed the incident, noting that this trader achieved an astonishing 22 consecutive wins in Google search prediction markets and had recently deposited $3 million into Polymarket. Previously, the account also earned over $150,000 for accurately predicting the release date of Google AI 3.0. Haeju suspects the trader is an insider at Google, exploiting privileged information for profit, though there is currently no evidence to support this claim.

The incident has sparked heated debate within the crypto community. Some argue that prediction markets themselves provide economic incentives for insider trading—a user named WiiMee even claimed that prediction markets are designed specifically for insider trading. As the Polymarket platform relaunched after receiving approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the controversy over insider trading has intensified.

Polymarket is currently seeking further financing and is valued at $12 billion. The platform plans to launch a native token, POLY, with issuance scheduled for 2026. However, how it handles insider information will directly impact its future regulatory environment. This incident has put the spotlight on whether Polymarket can effectively aggregate information or will simply become a hotbed for insider trading.