Gate on-chain observation ( November 13 ): Bitcoin ETF saw a weekly outflow of 1.2 billion USD; Whales deposited 120 million USD possibly to increase their holdings of ETH.

On November 13, the Crypto Assets market showed a differentiated pattern under multiple intertwined factors. Bitcoin is facing severe tests, with about 7,500 BTC continuously flowing into mainstream CEX daily, and the net outflow of the Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. reached $278 million in a single day, with short-term holders becoming the main source of selling pressure. In stark contrast, Ethereum is showing strong institutional accumulation momentum, with Whale Addresses continuously increasing their holdings, and the scale of tokenization assets has surpassed the historical high of $201 billion.

The market sector rotation is evident, with both RWA and NFT sectors seeing a rise of over 2% in 24 hours, while the Meme sector has experienced capital outflow. The current core contradiction in the market lies between the short-term liquidity crisis of Bitcoin and the long-term value accumulation of Ethereum.

1. BTC Market Dynamics and Analysis

On-chain Bitcoin data reveals that the market is facing an important directional choice. In terms of the long-short game, the whale (0x5D2) with the largest short position on Hyperliquid currently holds a short position of $127 million, with an unrealized profit of $10.05 million (yield of 160%), and its average opening price is $111,500. This address has previously opened large BTC short positions four times, all of which recorded losses totaling approximately $5.48 million, but this time, after partially closing positions to take profits at 40% post the October 11 incident, it has realized a profit of about $5.17 million.

The movement of “smart money” shows significant divergence. Despite a Whale “gud.hl” depositing 4.48 million USDC into Hyperliquid and opening a 12x leveraged long position in BTC, more data indicates that short-term holders are intensifying selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant's monitoring, the 30-day moving average daily inflow of Bitcoin to mainstream CEX has surged to about 7,500 BTC, marking the highest inflow rate since the adjustment in March. The actual cost for these short-term holders is approximately $112,000, and they have been in a state of unrealized loss for about a month, prompting them to choose to transfer large amounts of BTC to exchanges in search of an exit.

In terms of macro and institutional flows, institutional investors' attitudes have turned cautious. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $278 million on November 13, with a total net outflow of $1.2 billion in the first week of November. This data reflects that institutional confidence has not fully recovered since the $500 billion market cap evaporation in the cryptocurrency market at the beginning of October. It is worth noting that the whale holding 10,000 Bitcoins, Owen Gunden, has again deposited 2,401 BTC into a mainstream CEX, worth approximately $245 million, and his remaining holdings have dropped to 2,499 BTC, worth about $259 million.

2. ETH Market Dynamics and Analysis

The on-chain activities of Ethereum highlight a significant divergence between its fundamentals and price performance. Focusing on Whale behavior, a Whale address that “borrowed 66,000 ETH to short” has, on top of having purchased 385,718 ETH (approximately $1.33 billion), again borrowed 120 million USDT from Aave and deposited it into mainstream CEX, indicating that it may continue to increase its holdings in Ethereum. This behavior resonates with the fundamentals, as the scale of tokenized assets on Ethereum has risen to $201 billion, accounting for 64% of the global market share.

Long-term holder activity is happening, with Ethereum co-founder Taylor Gerring's associated address tagstax.eth receiving 4,544 ETH, worth $15.41 million, and has not yet been transferred or sold. At the same time, there are significant signs of institutional accumulation, with a newly created wallet possibly belonging to Bitmine receiving 24,007 ETH from Galaxy Digital OTC, worth $82.04 million. This data aligns with the recent trend of 184,740 ETH flowing out of major exchanges, indicating that smart money is transferring assets to cold wallets for long-term storage.

At the ecological and network activity level, there is a disconnection between the value accumulation of the Ethereum network and its price performance. Although the ETH price oscillates around $3,400, the scale of its tokenized assets has surpassed a historical high of $201 billion, with a significant proportion being stablecoins, and tokenized gold expected to double to $3.5 billion by 2025. However, data from the derivatives market shows that the open interest of Ethereum contracts has dropped to $17.6 billion, with the funding rate close to neutral, indicating that traders are waiting for clearer market catalysts.

3. Other Altcoin Market Dynamics and Analysis

public chain ecosystem

The long-short battle for ZEC has entered a new phase. On Hyperliquid, the “former largest long” Whale (0x96e) increased their position by 5,000 ZEC, raising their holding size to $7.5 million, with an average cost of $547. This address began accumulating ZEC on November 3 when the price was around $380, using a principal of $2.21 million through continuous rolling operations, at one point increasing their assets to $10.5 million. However, due to the subsequent decline in ZEC prices, they were forced to reduce their position and cut losses on 40,000 ZEC, recording a loss of about $960,000. In contrast, the largest short for ZEC still holds a short position of $25 million, with unrealized losses narrowing from a high of $20 million to $6.5 million, with an opening price of $336.

In terms of sector performance, the RWA and NFT sectors performed well, with 24-hour increases of 2.05% and 2.01%, respectively. Among them, the RWA sector's Sky (SKY) rose by 9.01%, and Keeta (KTA) rose by 5.32%; the NFT sector's Zora (ZORA) surged by 19.46%. The Layer 1 sector overall fell by 0.43%, but Zcash (ZEC) reached a peak daily increase of 8.75%.

DeFi and RWA sectors

UNI shows signs of institutional-level layout. An address suspected to belong to Monetalis (0x5eE…16B) has acquired 1.851 million UNI through over-the-counter transactions from market makers such as Wintermute, Flow Traders, and B2C2, worth 14.33 million dollars, at an average price of 7.7 dollars. Meanwhile, the unrealized profit of the UNI long position held by the 'Calm Order King' has decreased from 3.1 million dollars (yield of 478%) to 1.9 million dollars (yield of 360%), but the position size remains around 5.29 million dollars.

The strong performance of the RWA sector corresponds with the prediction by the U.S. Treasury Secretary that the stablecoin market will grow to $3 trillion by 2030. This trend has been recognized by traditional financial giants, with Visa piloting stablecoin payments backed by fiat currency for U.S. businesses, and Mastercard collaborating with Thunes to bring stablecoin payments into the mainstream.

Meme coin and specific projects

The Meme sector shows signs of capital withdrawal, with an overall decline of 0.06%. A certain PEPE whale has executed a “surrender” liquidation, transferring the last $3.7 million worth of PEPE to a CEX, completely ending its holdings. This address began accumulating PEPE in June 2024 and at its peak controlled $46 million worth of PEPE tokens. Meanwhile, the TRUMP 3x leveraged long position held by the whale “gud.hl” is facing an unrealized loss of $207,000, reflecting the pressure on political-themed Meme coins as well.

4. Market Overview and Trend Analysis

In summary, the current market is at a critical stage of institutional capital reallocation. Bitcoin is facing dual challenges from the selling pressure of short-term holders and the outflow of institutional funds. The daily inflow of 7,500 BTC to exchanges and the outflow of ETF funds indicate that the defense around the $100,000 price range is exceptionally difficult. In contrast, Ethereum, with its strong tokenization asset ecosystem and institutional accumulation model, is forming independent fundamental support. In terms of sector rotation, areas backed by real assets, such as RWA and NFTs, are performing strongly, while the Meme sector, which relies purely on community consensus, is experiencing noticeable capital outflow.

In terms of trend analysis, attention should be focused on the next 1-3 trading days:

• The defense situation of Bitcoin at the psychological level of 100,000 USD, if it fails to hold, may dive to 98,000 USD (near the 50-week moving average).
• Ethereum needs to hold the support level of 3400 USD. If it can break through the resistance at 3650 USD, it may test the 3900 USD area.
• The result of the ZEC long-short showdown, with 500 dollars becoming the key battleground line for both sides.
• The impact of the U.S. government's resumption of economic data release on market risk appetite.
• The SEC's “Token Classification Act” plans to clarify the securities attributes of Crypto Assets.

Investors should closely monitor the trend changes of stablecoin inflows into mainstream CEXs—over $1 billion in net stablecoin inflows in the past 24 hours may provide potential purchasing power for the market, while also paying attention to signals of market bottom formation after short-term holders realize losses, which are often important reference indicators for market cyclical lows.

V. Conclusion

On-chain data paints a clear picture of a market transformation: Bitcoin experiences short-term pain while the Ethereum ecosystem thrives, with institutional funds cautiously retreating from high-volatility assets towards RWA fields that offer actual returns. In this moment of alternating old and new narratives, market participants are shifting from mere price speculation to value discovery, with protocols that focus on fundamental accumulation and cash flow generation gradually gaining premiums. Historical experience shows that when stablecoins accumulate in exchanges, long-term holders silently accumulate in fear, and regulatory frameworks become clearer, it often indicates that a new trend is brewing. In the current “autumn” of Bitcoin, patiently positioning in core assets with clear value accumulation mechanisms may be the best strategy to navigate through the cycle.