Visa Flags a $40 Trillion Opening for Stablecoins in Global Credit Shift

Stablecoins have backed $670B in loans across 1.1M borrowers, with average loan size climbing to $121K in August.

USDT and USDC make up 98% of stablecoin lending and over 80% of circulating supply, according to the report.

IMF warns of risks to monetary policy and credit stability as tokenized lending and market cap expand under new U.S. laws.

Visa has noted a potential rewriting of global credit rails, pointing to stablecoins as a bridge between traditional lending and programmable finance. In a new report, the company argues that blockchain-based systems could host segments of the US$40 trillion credit market

The report does not forecast full migration, but it identifies stability-pegged tokens as vehicles that could carry lending activity into on-chain infrastructure. The document frames this shift as both an opening and a challenge for banks seeking to adapt to programmable money. That framing marks one of the clearest signals from a major payments firm that credit issuance and settlement could move beyond legacy platforms.

Lending Data and Current Market Structure

The report finds that stablecoins have supported US$670 billion in loans over the past five years. Lending now involves 1.1 million unique borrowers, with an average loan size of US$76,000

That number reached US$121,000 in August, indicating growth in larger credit positions. According to the report, Circle’s USDC and Tether’s USDT account for 98% of all stablecoin-based lending, which aligns with their combined 83% share of circulating supply

USDT has a reported US$181 billion market cap and USDC sits at US$76 billion, contributing to the US$307 billion total supply. This lending data serves as the basis for Visa’s view that on-chain credit activity is no longer isolated to digital-native platforms.

Regulatory Outlook and Market Predictions

Another element reshaping the sector is the regulatory backdrop. Total stablecoin capitalization has risen by US$100 billion since January, driven by the U.S. GENIUS Act. The law created a framework for tokens issued by U.S. entities, contributing to institutional participation

On Myriad, a prediction platform owned by DASTAN, user sentiment has shifted toward further growth. Currently, 67% of participants expect market cap to hit US$360 billion by early 2026, leaving an estimated US$53 billion gap by January. This trend feeds into expectations that more credit functions could move onto tokenized systems over the next two years.

Concerns From Financial Institutions and Policy Bodies

However, expanding usage has raised scrutiny from regulators. The International Monetary Fund warned in its 2025 Global Financial Stability Report that stablecoins can substitute for deposits and safe assets

The IMF pointed to risks around leverage, maturity mismatches and disruption of traditional lending models. It also highlighted consequences for monetary policy and the possibility of liquidity runs

Recent operational missteps have added to those concerns. Last week, observers noted that Paxos minted and burned US$300 trillion worth of PayPal USD in a single transaction. The company stated on X that the mint was an error and said customer funds remained secure.

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