US-Gulf Trade Grew in Early 2026 Despite Trump Tariffs

Bilateral trade in goods between the US and Gulf states rose broadly in January and February 2026 over the same period in 2025, nearly a year after President Donald Trump started imposing far-reaching tariffs against global partners, according to analysis published May 1, 2026. US imports and exports to and from the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Qatar all showed annual increases, with energy products exempt from tariffs and political engagement cited as key drivers.

Tariff Timeline and Initial Impact

Trump started imposing levies on US imports from around the world on April 2, 2025, which he dubbed “Liberation Day”. Some products were targeted with country-by-country tariffs, while others, such as aluminium and steel, drew sectoral levies. The Gulf came out relatively well at the start, hit only with the 10 percent baseline that the White House directed at all trading partners.

Subsequent import taxes on aluminium and steel, which have fluctuated as high as 50 percent, were a bigger concern for countries such as the UAE, the second-biggest supplier of aluminium to the US after Canada.

Just days before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, the Supreme Court invalidated Trump’s country-by-country tariffs, but not the sectoral ones, which were levied under a different legal case.

Trade Data by Country

US imports and exports to and from the UAE and Oman for February were up year on year, according to Census data. Exchanges with Saudi Arabia and Qatar were also higher at the start of 2026 over 2025. Only bilateral trade in goods with Kuwait and Bahrain was stable or slightly down.

Emirati exports of aluminium to the US grew by nearly 30 percent in February versus the previous year, according to data platform Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s growing sales of fertilisers to the US market that same month separately helped drive a broader 16 percent increase in the annual volume of these critical agricultural chemicals imported by the US, the OEC found.

Drivers of Trade Growth

Analysts credited exemptions for energy products, a focus on price-insensitive heavy machinery and advanced technology, political will and small overall volumes of exchange for driving this trend.

“US-GCC trade is not really tariff-sensitive, especially US exports to the GCC,” said Rachel Ziemba, a macrostrategy adviser in New York. “Whether it’s military equipment, or nuclear-related machinery, these are expensive items with non-elastic prices.”

Hamzeh Al Gaaod, an independent Mena economist, pointed to political efforts at the highest levels of government in the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to bolster bilateral trade and investment ties as an important factor. During Trump’s Gulf trip in mid-May last year, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Washington in November, and the meetings of many other senior Gulf and US officials, hundreds of billions of dollars of deals were signed in aviation, oil and gas, artificial intelligence, food security and other sectors.

“The relationship with the GCC was going quite well before the Iran war started,” Al Gaaod said. He added that the conflict might impact bilateral geopolitical dealings, but should not derail economic ones.

Positive US trade balances in January and February with all Gulf states except Bahrain put the region on the right footing with this administration and its use of tariffs to retaliate against countries with which the US has a trade gap, Al Gaaod said.

Upcoming Data Release

The next release of trade data, maintained by the US Census Bureau, is scheduled for the following week and should cover the full month of March, providing an early window into the impact of the Iran conflict. Trump is still looking for different ways to pursue his protectionist trade policies as uncertainty persists over the rules of international commerce.