Powell’s Final Press Conference Tonight: The Fed’s Regular Public Q&A May Become History

In the early hours of April 30 Beijing time, the U.S. Federal Reserve will release its latest interest rate decision. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market pricing shows the probability of holding the rate unchanged in April has reached 100%. But what draws widespread attention is not the interest rate itself, but the chairman’s press conference held afterward—this will be Jerome Powell’s last regular public Q&A session as Fed chair before he steps down.

Since taking office in 2019, Powell has held a press conference after every policy meeting, trying to use plain language to explain the logic behind monetary policy to the public. However, this communication mechanism—now approaching nearly seven years—faces a fundamental turning point. Kevin Wosch, who has been nominated as the next Fed chair, has publicly hinted that the regular press conferences may be completely stopped. For the crypto market, reduced Fed transparency means a significant increase in the difficulty of interpreting policy signals.

Why might the Fed’s regular public Q&As come to an end?

Those who support the Fed chair’s regular appearances believe press conferences help the central bank shape a narrative around interest-rate decisions and guide market expectations. But critics—including Wosch himself—argue the opposite: the Fed officials’ communication has become too transparent.

When Wosch testified before the Senate Banking Committee last week, he said clearly: “When you hold a press conference, you always have to have some important news to release.” The logic implied is that if there is no major policy change, holding regular press conferences would instead create unnecessary market volatility. Wosch is expected to be confirmed before the next policy meeting in mid-June, and one of his first actions after taking office may be to cancel the routine press briefings. If this shift actually takes effect, it would mark a major step backward for the communication transparency framework the Fed has been gradually building since the Greenspan era.

How does the rate-cut path tug-of-war affect current market expectations?

Even if Powell takes the stage as expected, the substance of this meeting still centers on the interest-rate path. Nick Timiraos, a senior Federal Reserve reporter for The Wall Street Journal, points out that intense internal debate is underway within the Fed over whether to revise the wording in the official statement—specifically, the phrasing that “the next policy action is more likely to be a rate cut than an increase.”

In the past two meetings, a small number of officials argued for deleting this phrasing, which would make the probabilities of rate cuts and rate hikes equal. But the committee’s mainstream view is that changing the wording itself would tighten financial conditions—an overtly hawkish move that officials are not yet prepared to take. The current benchmark rate remains in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, while expectations for inflation to return to the 2% target have been pushed out to at least a year later. For crypto asset traders, each adjustment to rate-cut expectations directly affects risk appetite and capital flows.

How do supply shocks reshape the Fed’s policy priorities?

The U.S. is experiencing the fourth supply shock within five years: the post-pandemic economic restart, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the tariff war, and the current situation in the Middle East. Although the Iran war has achieved a ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz remains under a de facto blockade, and aviation fuel prices continue to surge.

Against this backdrop, Fed officials’ stance has changed significantly. Fed Governor Waller, who supported three rate cuts last year due to concerns about the labor market, has this month shifted to warning about inflation risks. Stagflation risk—the dilemma of slower economic growth alongside persistently high inflation—has once again become the focus of discussion. For the crypto market, a stagflation environment often means rising risk-aversion sentiment, but the inflation-hedging narrative for assets such as Bitcoin is also facing a real test.

What does reduced Fed transparency mean for crypto assets?

If, after Wosch takes office, regular press conferences are canceled, the crypto market will face a macro environment with significantly lower information transparency. The transmission channel for Fed policy signals will be concentrated in the post-meeting statement and the dot plot, with a lack of additional context that would normally be provided by real-time Q&A.

The impact on crypto assets shows up in three areas:

1. First, revisions to policy expectations will become more abrupt, potentially triggering larger volatility after the statement is released;
2. Second, the market’s ability to perceive divisions within the Fed will decline, increasing the risk of pricing errors;
3. Third, in the absence of verbal guidance from the chair, traders will rely more on lagging data, extending the decision-response cycle. For high-frequency trading strategies, this means risk models need to be recalibrated.

What new communication mechanisms does the market need to prepare for?

Canceling regular press conferences does not mean the Fed will stop communicating. Possible alternative arrangements include: restoring the old practice of holding press conferences every other meeting, calling press conferences only when there are major policy changes, or strengthening the role of written statements and quarterly economic forecast summaries.

Wosch’s prior public remarks suggest he prefers a communication approach with lower frequency but higher information density. This means that in the future, Fed policy signals may be more concentrated in the economic forecasts from quarterly meetings and updates to the dot plot. For participants in the crypto market, this requires adjusting information-gathering habits—from tracking monthly press-conference wording changes to gaining a deeper understanding of the internal logic of quarterly economic forecasts. At the same time, the weight given by secondary-market analysts to their interpretation of statement text will increase significantly.

The new landscape for the Fed and the crypto market after Powell’s farewell

During Powell’s tenure, the Fed carried out the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in its history, and he also witnessed the crypto market fall back from a $3 trillion market-cap peak into a phase of structural reshaping. The “plain and understandable communication” philosophy he emphasized has indeed helped participants outside traditional finance better understand monetary policy.

Once the communication approach shifts, the crypto market will face dual adaptation: not only digesting changes in the interest-rate path itself, but also dealing with adjustments to how signals are transmitted. Historical experience suggests that during periods of reduced Fed transparency, the “policy sensitivity” of asset prices usually increases—meaning the same data or statement content could trigger more intense market reactions than before. For Gate users, this means needing to manage macro risk exposure more cautiously and cross-validate with alternative data sources (such as inflation expectations and real-time indicators from the employment market).

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: When was Powell’s last press conference held?

A: At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 30, the interest rate decision will be released, followed by a press conference by Powell.

Q: Will the Fed really cancel regular press conferences?

A: The incoming chair, Kevin Wosch, has publicly hinted that he may stop routine press briefings, and a decision is expected to be made after confirmation of the nomination in mid-June.

Q: What impact will canceling press conferences have on crypto assets like Bitcoin?

A: Reduced transparency in policy signals may increase the market’s difficulty in interpreting what the Fed intends, and volatility after the statement is released may intensify.

Q: Will this meeting include a rate cut?

A: Market pricing shows a 100% probability that the rate will be held unchanged in April; the focus is whether the statement wording deletes the phrasing that implies a “bias toward rate cuts.”

Q: How does the Fed currently view inflation and economic growth?

A: Officials expect it will take at least one year for inflation to return to 2%, and they also face stagflation risks brought by supply shocks. Policy priorities have shifted from supporting employment stability to controlling inflation.