Grab Q1 2026: Analysts Bullish Despite Indonesia Regulatory Cap

Analysts remain broadly optimistic about Grab following its first-quarter 2026 results, despite emerging regulatory headwinds in Indonesia. The company reported a 466.7% jump in earnings to US$136 million in Q1 2026 from US$24 million in Q1 2025, with brokerage firms presenting mixed outlooks on target prices citing strong operational execution and new regulatory pressures.

Q1 2026 Financial Performance

Grab reported quarterly revenue of US$955 million, 3% above consensus estimates. Gross merchandise value (GMV) grew 24% year on year to US$6.1 billion. Mobility EBITDA margins reached 8.9%, while delivery revenue rose 23% year on year to US$510 million. The company’s financial services segment is on track to achieve segment-adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the second half of 2026, according to analyst assessments.

Analyst Outlooks

Jefferies analyst Thomas Chong reiterated a “buy” rating on Grab, maintaining a target price of US$5.80. Chong highlighted the group’s “solid execution across segments,” noting that revenue performance was 4% ahead of consensus estimates and mobility EBITDA margins slightly exceeded his forecasts.

Morningstar equity analyst Kai Wang maintained a fair value estimate of US$5.60 for Grab, deeming the current share price attractive. Wang noted that “given Grab’s clear leadership in Southeast Asia, we believe it will have long-term pricing power for its services because there is a lack of substitutes in the region.” Morningstar highlighted that Grab’s main rival, GoTo, logged a 4% GMV growth in the quarter, positioning Grab as the clear market leader across the region with its 24% organic growth.

CGS International (CGSI) reiterated its “add” call while slashing its target price to US$4.50 from US$6.25. The firm revised its FY 2027 and FY 2028 adjusted EBITDA estimates downward by 8% and 7%, respectively, citing “value-destructive mergers and acquisitions, and higher-than-expected cost pressures” as downside risks. Despite the regulatory overhang, CGSI remains positive on Grab’s “resilient GMV growth and manageable cost pressures.”

Indonesia Regulatory Headwinds

A key point of contention for analysts is the recent directive from Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto to cap ride-hailing commissions for two-wheel services at 8%, down from 20%. Jefferies noted that two-wheeler services in the country account for less than 6% of Grab’s overall mobility GMV, stating that “mobility unit economics can be maintained via strategic allocation for consumer and driver incentives.”

CGS International has conservatively baked in the 8% commission cap from 2027 onwards and warned of “downside risks” if the cap is extended to four-wheel drivers or delivery services. The firm noted that “management highlighted that it is actively engaging with regulators while navigating broader macro headwinds, including elevated fuel costs.” Despite this, Grab remains confident in the resilience of its mobility GMV growth, supported by ongoing optimization of its AI-driven marketplace and continued product innovation, according to CGSI’s assessment.