A Look At Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s Valuation And Merger Story With Mediobanca

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 4:08 PM GMT+9 3 min read

In this article:

BMPS.MI
+2.98%

MB.MI
+3.04%

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Why Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena is on investors’ radar

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BIT:BMPS) has attracted attention after a recent period where the share price showed mixed short-term performance, including a small monthly decline alongside a gain over the past 3 months.

For investors, this contrast in returns compared to its year-to-date and 1-year figures raises the question of whether the current price around €8.78 fairly reflects the bank’s latest financial profile and risk level.

See our latest analysis for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena.

Recent trading has been volatile, with a 7-day share price return of 7.13% and a 30-day share price decline of 1.88%. The 1-year total shareholder return of 52.79% indicates momentum that remains intact over a longer horizon.

If this bank’s movement has you looking more broadly across the market, it could be a good time to expand your search and explore 101 top founder-led companies as potential new ideas.

With Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena trading near €8.78, a recent 1-year total return of 52.79%, and only a small intrinsic discount of about 1%, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.9% Undervalued

With Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena last closing at about €8.78 against a narrative fair value of €9.96, the current valuation depends on how sustainable its earnings and capital strength prove to be over time.

The proposed combination with Mediobanca is expected to deliver significant pre-tax synergies (~€700 million annually) and double-digit growth in adjusted earnings per share, along with a 100% payout ratio and high dividend yield, directly benefiting shareholder returns and future earnings growth.

Read the full narrative.

Want to see what lies behind that bold merger upside story? The fair value depends on specific revenue, margin, and earnings assumptions that are quite optimistic on paper.

Result: Fair Value of €9.96 (UNDERVALUED)

Read the full narrative to understand the assumptions behind the forecasts.

However, there are still clear risk factors, including pressure on net interest margins if interest rates fall and merger execution risks related to the Mediobanca tie-up.

Learn about the key risks to this Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena story.

Next Steps

Given the potential upside and the uncertainties in this story, it makes sense to analyze the numbers yourself and act quickly if you want to form a firm opinion. A good starting point is to examine four key rewards and four important warning signs.

Story Continues

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts using an unbiased methodology, and our articles are not intended as financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, nor does it consider your personal objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to provide long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Note that our analysis may not include the latest company announcements sensitive to price movements or qualitative factors. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BMPS.MI.

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