#CVC#Public Release, data updated in real-time, the market changes endlessly, only represents current data analysis, for reference only.
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1. Core Conclusion (Simplified Summary)
High probability direction in the next 12 hours
There is a high probability of a bearish trend, but the signs of "active selling" are weakening, presenting a chance for a rebound spike. However, the reversal conditions have not been established, and the main trend remains weak with fluctuations.
The expected price range is between $0.148 and $0.160, with fluctuations. There may be short-term highs, but they are likely to be pushed back down by selling pressure from the main players. It will be difficult to break above 0.162 in the next 12 hours.
2. Inference Details & Key Data
1. Synthetic Time Window Fund Flow and Position
15m-2.56k-3.37k main force, retail investors are short, short-term shipments 30m-3.43k-1.63k accelerated outflow 1h+23.34k-4.11k main force has to make up, retail investors still panic cut meat 4h+18.11k-27.57k main force slightly bottomed, retail investors fled sharply 8h-12.56k-85.33k main force/retail investors are short, The superimposed panic 12h-49.88k-4.74k main capital outflow accelerated, and the shorts continued to flow out of both 24h-17.14k-23.98k, and the long-term strength was weak
Key Interpretation: Although the main force occasionally makes slight replenishments (such as in 1h and 4h), there is a continuous outflow in the larger windows of 8h and 12h, with no significant inflow signals. Retail investors are rapidly cutting losses in the short term, and any rebound should be taken as a short opportunity rather than being greedy.
2. Position & Price Related
12h+2.22%+5.58% there is some active position increase, but the increase is limited 24h+4.77%+8.84% the position increase is higher than the price, indicating that bulls are passively adding positions 48h+16.72%+29.32% after a strong surge, it has turned into sideways movement/distribution.
Key Interpretation: The increase in positions is greater than the price increase, indicating that most of the rise is due to "active position building", not external capital inflow from the market. The main players are gradually realizing profits at high levels, which can easily lead to a pullback after a spike.
3. K-Line and Indicators (MACD/RSI/KDJ)
The MACD is flat with no significant bullish energy amplification, leaning towards a weak golden cross at the top, with a risk of a pullback at any time.
RSI/KDJ: Central range, clear top divergence (short-term highs continuously lower), rebound without volume.
4. Institutional and Retail Investor Behavior
**Retail Investor Behavior:** 12h net outflow, with obvious characteristics of chasing highs and cutting losses, following the crowd to sell.
**Main force behavior:** Gradually reducing positions at high levels, with occasional but not persistent replenishments. The main force's buying is not decisive, and there has been no continuous increase in volume.
**Position Rotation:** The main force has taken bottom-fishing actions in the 1h and 4h windows, and the rebound is only for "high selling and low buying" arbitrage, not a trend-driven surge.
5. Key Highlights
The accelerated outflow of main funds in 12 hours is a decisive factor. If the main players do not buy, retail investors can only follow and exit, leading to a naturally weak and volatile trend.
Retail investors continue to cut losses, and the rebound space is limited. Even a short-term surge is a trap to attract more buyers, suitable for quick in and out.
The price repeatedly faces resistance at the top, and long positions must strictly take profits to prevent major players from selling off and causing a pullback.
3. Practical Suggestions (Common Strategies)
Mainly bearish, with a rebound to short. The expected price range is 0.148-0.160, and a breakout above 0.162 requires strong support from the main force; otherwise, it is a false breakout and a true pullback.
Short-term trading requires quick entry and exit, referencing the resistance levels of the MA7/MA30 moving averages; if the volume is less than expected, exit immediately.
Do not linger on the battle; it is highly unlikely to sustain an increase for 12 hours. The main force is in control, and the trading volume is not consistent, leading to rapid shifts between long and short positions.
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