August ETH leads, aiming for 8200 USD by the end of the year? Analysis of the opportunity window for alts.
Every August, there is always a "leading coin" in the cryptocurrency market that dominates the rhythm. Last August, Bitcoin was the star, and this August, Ethereum (ETH) has taken over the "leading role." Can ETH replicate last year's Bitcoin doubling trend? When will the alts follow? Is the bull market really returning? Combining last year's trends, current capital flows, and key events, the answers to these questions will be clearly presented.
1. August this year vs. August last year: Why is ETH's "leading role" more prominent?
To determine whether ETH can replicate the "doubling market", one must first understand the core differences from August two years ago - last year it was Bitcoin "dominating the market", while this year it's ETH "stealing the spotlight", with completely different financial logic.
1. August 2023: Bitcoin's "bloodsucking rise," ETH and alts "lying flat"
In August 2023, the market's main line became clear: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released a "hawkish pause" signal at the Jackson Hole meeting (suggesting that the interest rate hike cycle is nearing its end), and a large amount of capital flowed into Bitcoin. At that time, Bitcoin rose from $28,000 to $42,000, an increase of over 50%; while ETH fluctuated between $1,800 and $2,200, with a maximum increase of only 22%; most alts fell by over 10%, resulting in an extreme divergence of "Bitcoin rising and alts falling."
The core reason is "high concentration of funds": at that time, the market was fermenting expectations for the "approval of Bitcoin ETF", and institutional funds were almost entirely betting on Bitcoin, while ETH and alts were seen as "high-risk subordinate assets", with no one willing to divert funds.
2. August 2024: ETH "snatches" Bitcoin, institutions actively "shift positions"
This year the situation has completely reversed: from the end of July to early August, ETH consistently outperformed Bitcoin. Bitcoin rose from $65,000 to $68,000 (an increase of 4.6%), while ETH surged from $1,800 to $2,400 (an increase of 33%), and the ETH/BTC exchange rate broke through 0.036 (last August's peak was only 0.032). Behind this is "institutional funds actively reallocating", and key data can support this:
- BlackRock "Rebalancing Signal": Its Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of $320 million in the past two weeks, while the Ethereum ETF has had a net inflow of $580 million, indicating that institutions are pulling out of Bitcoin and investing in ETH;
- On-chain capital flow: Whale addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH (institutional players) have net increased their holdings by 27,000 ETH (approximately 64.8 million USD) since August, while Bitcoin whale addresses have net outflowed 12,000 BTC (approximately 816 million USD);
- Jackson Hole conference "poor attitude": At this year's conference, Powell mentioned "concern about the impact of cryptocurrencies on the financial system" without specifically targeting ETH. The market interpreted this as a "tacit approval of Ethereum ETF," pushing ETH to rise 5% on the same day, while Bitcoin only rose 1.2%.
This trend of "capital flowing from Bitcoin to ETH" did not exist last year—ETH does not need to "wait for Bitcoin to rise before enjoying the benefits," but can directly "eat the meat," laying the foundation for "replication and doubling."
2. Can ETH reach 8200 USD by the end of the year? Two key points determine the price increase, 70% is the bottom line.
Many people believe that "ETH rising from $4800 to $8200 (a 70% increase)" is too aggressive, but considering the "historical trends + capital scale + event catalysts", this target is not only achievable but could even be considered a "conservative estimate."
1. Key Point One: After the Jackson Hole meeting → Early September non-farm data, a pullback is an opportunity to get on board.
Currently, ETH is consolidating around 4800 USD, and the market is concerned about whether there will be a "pullback after the meeting." However, even if there is a pullback, it is still a "golden pit" for two reasons:
- A pullback is the "funds switching gap": historical data shows that after key Federal Reserve meetings (such as Jackson Hole, interest rate decisions), cryptocurrencies typically experience a 10%-15% pullback (Bitcoin dropped 12% after the 2023 meeting, and ETH dropped 10% after the March 2024 interest rate decision). This is not a "trend reversal," but rather institutions "realizing some profits to prepare for a larger position."
- Strong support level: The $4700 for ETH is the EMA 120-day moving average (bull-bear dividing line), and it is also the Fibonacci 50% retracement level (midpoint of $4098-$5068). Last August, when Bitcoin pulled back, it stabilized and rebounded at the EMA 120-day moving average. If ETH pulls back to $4500-$4700 this year, it will attract "buy-the-dip funds" to enter the market, forming support.
Even if it retraces to $4500, as long as it stabilizes above $5000 (the previous high resistance level), according to the technical logic of "breakout increase = range width" (the range of $4098-$5000 is $902), the next target will be $5900, which represents a 31% increase.
2. Key Node Two: Non-Farm Data → Interest Rate Cuts in September-October, ETH Begins "Main Uptrend"
Last year's ETH "delayed increase" needs to wait for the "non-farm data + interest rate cut" catalyst, and this year's pace will be faster because "expectations have been advanced":
- The "signal significance" of non-farm data: If the non-farm data in early September shows that "the U.S. unemployment rate rises and wage growth slows," the market will conclude that "the Federal Reserve must cut interest rates in September," and funds will enter the market early to seize the opportunity (last year, after the non-farm data, Bitcoin rose 20% in advance);
- The "funding tide" after interest rate cuts: Following the interest rate cuts, USD liquidity will be loosened, and institutions will increase their allocation to "high-growth assets." ETH has a stronger "growth story" than Bitcoin (Layer 2 ecosystem, DeFi recovery, and ETF increments). After last year's interest rate cuts, Bitcoin increased by 30%. This year, ETH's increase will not be less than this, and it may even be higher.
Calculating based on the path "$4500 pullback → $5900 after non-farm payrolls → $8200 after interest rate cuts", the total increase of ETH by the end of the year is exactly 70%—this is not "wishful thinking", but a reasonable deduction based on "historical increase + current capital scale".
Three, alts "opportunity window": wait for two signals, the increase is unlikely to exceed ETH.
"ETH has risen, when will alts rise?" This is a frequently asked question recently. But it needs to be clear: this year the altcoin market is later and more differentiated, so to make a profit, one must be patient.
1. Do not touch alts at this stage: ETH is still "attracting funds", and alts lack capital.
The current market funding logic is "first hold onto ETH's thigh" - both institutional and retail funds are concentrating on ETH, and no one is willing to speculate on alts, as data can verify:
- The total value locked (TVL) in the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem grew by 18% in August, while the TVL in altcoin-centric ecosystems like Solana and Avalanche only grew by 3%-5%;
- The trading volume of the top 100 alts has only increased by 7% in the past two weeks, while the trading volume of ETH has increased by 42%.
Without financial support, alts find it hard to rise, at most it's just "individual coins short-term speculation" (like a certain MEME coin rising 20% one day and falling 15% the next), with no sustainability. Last August was the same: when Bitcoin rose, all alts fell, until Bitcoin couldn't rise anymore, funds flowed to alts - this year's sequence is "ETH rises first, and when it can't rise anymore, funds will then pay attention to alts."
2. Alts opportunities after "non-farm data + interest rate cut", focus on two major tracks
Not all alts have the opportunity; only coins that are "bound to the ETH ecosystem + have actual hotspots" may follow up, with a focus on two tracks:
- Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem coins: such as Arbitrum (ARB), Optimism (OP). After ETH rises, the activity of Layer 2 will increase in sync (users turn to Layer 2 due to high ETH transfer fees). At the end of last year, when ETH rose to 2400 dollars, ARB increased from 1.2 dollars to 2.8 dollars (an increase of 133%). The logic is the same this year, and the current TVL of Layer 2 is already 30% higher than last year, indicating greater potential;
- RWA (Real World Assets) track coins: such as ONDO, Centrifuge (CFG). This is a new hotspot this year, gaining institutional recognition (BlackRock's research on RWA projects), and is tied to the ETH ecosystem (most RWA protocols are deployed on Ethereum). Once the "main surge wave" of ETH ends, funds will seek "ETH ecosystem complementary varieties," and RWA is one of the best choices.
It is important to remember: even high-quality alts are unlikely to outperform ETH in terms of percentage increase. Last year, Bitcoin rose by 50%, while alts averaged a 30% increase; this year, ETH has risen by 70%, and a 40%-50% increase for alts would be considered good. Do not expect "alts to double"; this is a situation that typically occurs in the later stages of a bull market, and it is still too early for that.
IV. Conclusion: Has the "bull returned"? It is currently a "structural bull market", only recognizing ETH.
Many people believe that "when ETH rises, it means a bull market is back," but in reality, we are currently in a "structural bull market" — not all coins are rising, only ETH and a few quality alts have the opportunity, while Bitcoin and shitcoins will be marginalized.
Last year's bull market was a "Bitcoin-led rally," this year it's a "ETH-led differentiated rise"—to profit, one must follow the flow of funds: at this stage, hold onto ETH tightly, wait until it stops rising, then select "high-quality alts in the ETH ecosystem," don't think about "buying the dip on meme coins" or "waiting for a general rally," otherwise, it will only waste time and even lead to losses.
The main character in August is ETH, and the main character at the end of the year is still ETH. The opportunities for alts require waiting, but the opportunity for ETH is right in front of you—don't hesitate, don't be greedy, follow the trend, that is the best strategy. #BTC#