I have been dealing with company matters these past few days. The food delivery war among the three armies has left us physical businesses in a state of chaos, and our summer sales have dropped by 30% compared to last year. We held two days of meetings where the managers and head chefs from the front lines offered various suggestions. I know what everyone is worried about; after all, our sales have now dropped to the breakeven point.
To be honest, these cost-cutting and efficiency-increasing methods are just what we seasoned restaurateurs have left over. They are of no use at all right now. After several years of the pandemic, which of the surviving veterans doesn't have a few tricks up their sleeves for survival? The essential issue in this period of economic downturn is the generational gap in consumers and the changes in consumption habits. When social productivity exceeds demand, there will always be a large group of people who cannot adapt and will be ruthlessly left behind.
When JD announced this year that it would venture into food delivery, my partner and I had already started discussing how to prepare funds in advance to cope with it. We are relatively familiar with the e-commerce tactics in the catering industry, and we have personally experienced several large-scale digital battles, including price wars between ride-hailing platforms, package group buying price wars, community grocery buying price wars, and live streaming sales price wars. The larger scale eats up the smaller scale, and the larger capital consumes the smaller capital.
Now the capital has finally burned to our last piece of land in the catering industry. Online takeout is coming to snatch dine-in customers. Nowadays, in the catering business, besides competing on service quality, environment, and cost-effectiveness, one also has to compete on marketing, legal affairs, supply chain, and business negotiations. Behind the waves of淘沙, there is a strong smell of blood. Those who can get through this phase, the most critical ability is not operational ability, but rather: cash ability.
September's off-season should be a watershed moment for many brick-and-mortar business owners regarding whether to close their shops. With no money, what awaits you is death; with money, what awaits you is a slow death, but perhaps you can fight for a glimmer of hope, barely hanging on. The future of individual catering that can sustain long-term profitability boils down to just two models: one is the genuine craftsmanship passed down through generations, and the other is craftsmen transitioning to online e-commerce, changing lanes to focus on product supply chains. Small and medium-sized catering companies, caught in the middle of labor, rent, ingredients, and marketing, are hijacked by big data algorithms. In a word: difficult.
Capital is indeed ruthless; every round of social transformation seems so similar, yet it is difficult to remain unscathed, just like an ancient poem states, "One cannot see the true face of Mount Lu, only because one is in the mountains." This sentence fits the physical dilemmas I am currently experiencing, and it also applies to you who are struggling in the cryptocurrency world.
I will leave the dilemma of the entity to my partner to handle, believing he can manage it as long as there are still some bullets left. After all, we are not the new recruits in this industry; as long as we do our job and stay true to ourselves, survival is not difficult, just earning a little less.
The expectation of interest rate cuts in September is already considered to have been fully priced in. There is still a long way to go until the interest rate meeting on September 18. According to historical patterns, it takes 500 days after a halving to reach a peak, and we are getting closer to that sprinting time. But will it really be that smooth to rally? I doubt it, as the expectations have not yet truly materialized into reality, and there are many variables that could emerge in the market. Whenever we reach such breakout points, there are always those blinded by greed, rushing in blindly, making reckless moves, and then becoming fuel for the fire.
On the 22nd, a large bullish candlestick appeared, and now it has fallen back again. The situation always seems so similar, yet human nature remains the same. Some friends left messages a few days ago asking me if I would be disappointed for not getting in on this wave of gains. To be honest, I have already moved past that stage; missing out on a short-term fluctuation isn't scary, but missing out on a major trend is what is truly regrettable. Moreover, it was just a small position; with a larger position, I can follow the market trends, and I feel quite satisfied. At least now, I know that out of my three major positions, the returns of two have met my expectations.
Looking at on-chain data, in the past 24 hours, a total of 140,985 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $664.08M. The largest single liquidation order was worth 12.49M. Over one night, more than 600 million dollars were liquidated, tens of billions of RMB. This is such terrifying data. Let me give you one more piece of advice: if you don’t have four years of coin age and a capital of over 500,000, it's better to play less with contracts at this stage. Don’t let yourself fall into that kind of unsolvable self-blame. A moment of ecstatic excitement is likely to lead to tragedy. The market trend in the near future is bound to be volatile, jumping up and down, with a fluctuation of 40%-50% in a single day being common. Don’t let your greed harm yourself. Teachers are not 100% right, but they are 100% making money. For small retail investors like you, even if the direction is correct and the price comes back, if you have no position left, what does it mean for you? Honestly layout some spot positions, and stop always thinking about breaking even. While at the tail end of a bull market, get as much back as you can. Don't end up watching others make money while you suffer the loss; that pain is worse than death.
Actually, the market this weekend is quite strange. BTC has dropped while ETH has broken through its historical high. So, how will it move next? Let's see how the U.S. stock market digests last Friday night's interest rate cut expectations at tonight's opening. It can be relatively certain that the overall trend continues to be upward. The market's attention has gradually shifted from BTC to ETH and mainstream altcoins. Therefore, the strategy suitable for most people now is to enter the market whenever mainstream coins experience a pullback of 20%-30% or more, including those mentioned before. Although it is already difficult to obtain the low prices from April-May for most coins, if you still don't have the courage to invest, it’s better to exit early. After all, the road ahead is really tough, and the polarization will become more serious. Perhaps with less psychological pressure, you might be thrown out at any time.
For me personally, BTC above 100,000 and ETH above 3,000 are not attractive at all. If they occur, I will continue to add a little, but right now I'm more focused on the trends of altcoins, as they are also a significant source of profit. I have basically completed my thoughts and notes on operations before the end of the bull market, and in the coming period, I will gradually post them in the subscription updates. Friends who are interested can come and take a look.
Some friends mentioned before whether I could find an opportunity to adjust the subscription price. I agreed to this matter and originally planned to do it on my birthday. Now that ETH has broken a new high, I thought it would be a good time to celebrate and make a price adjustment. But first, I want to sincerely thank the hundreds of friends who have subscribed to me before this. Your trust and support make me feel not the joy of gaining money, but a deep respect and recognition that is hard to let go of. Although I haven't provided any wealth secrets or skills to you, I will always remember the coffee you treated me to, and I am truly grateful.
Next, I will change the writing direction of the subscription content. In addition to continuing to share my own insights and opinions, I will also tilt some of the trading information that you are looking forward to, as I do have these resources. Additionally, starting from September, I can do live streams to chat with everyone. The equipment has been set up, and I need some time to get familiar with it.
The promotional subscription period is from August 25 to September 10. Friends who meet the conditions are also welcome to support it; perhaps you can gain what you need from the content inside.
Thank you, there's a game tonight, see you tomorrow☕#ETH创历史新高##鲍威尔鸽派发言#