宏观新闻与全球政策动态

Taiwan currently has approximately 1 million cryptocurrency users, accounting for 10% of the total population. The financial regulatory authority has proposed a draft "Virtual Asset Service Act" requiring operators to place customer assets in trust and segregate them from company assets. Three overseas operators have already established companies in Taiwan to seek compliant licenses. Traditional banks are also actively entering the virtual asset sector, demonstrating the potential for digital asset development.

On March 26, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) stabilized above the $71,000 support level, while Ethereum (ETH) traded at $2,165, with both showing sustained positive returns over the past 30 days. The U.S. CLARITY Act stablecoin compromise proposal has made progress, with regulatory policies set to impact the DeFi ecosystem. The SEC declared Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities, ushering in a new era of ETFs. DeFi platform Balancer announced closure due to vulnerabilities, sparking discussions on governance structures. In the global macroeconomic environment, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged amid rising oil prices, facing challenges in implementing rate cuts.

Google 宣布2029年为所有产品完成后量子密码学迁移的截止期限，较美国政府的2035年早六年。量子运算对现行密码学构成威胁，各大区块链面对不同应对策略，比特币社群内部对风险看法不一，以太坊则计划在2029年提供相应保护。时间紧迫，产业行动需加速。

Franklin Templeton与Ondo Finance合作，将ETF及传统投资产品代币化，通过区块链技术提供给用户，这标志着传统金融与加密基础设施的融合。代币化作为ETF的新配送机制，使链上用户能享受低成本的被动指数投资，然而监管框架仍不明朗，影响代币化资产的广泛应用。

BlockBeats 消息，3 月 26 日，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）主席 Michael Selig 表示，推动真正意义上的加密货币永续合约业务回流美国，是 CFTC 创新政策议程的核心组成部分。

Iran has begun charging merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz "tolls" of up to $2 million, with payment methods including cash, cryptocurrency, or barter. US-Iran negotiating positions are contradictory, with the White House claiming talks are productive, while Tehran has laid out five conditions including war reparations. Against the backdrop of escalating tensions, Iran's toll collection could reshape the global energy payment system.

富兰克林邓普顿与Ondo Finance合作，计划推出五只代币化ETF，提供全天候交易。此合作旨在帮助投资者实现长期多元化投资策略，并通过教育项目整合传统与新兴金融生态。美国用户暂时无法参与该交易。

Visa recently became a super validator of Canton Network with the highest weight, marking its first participation in blockchain governance. Visa will advance institutional partnerships, expand stablecoin business, and directly participate in governance decisions. Canton provides privacy protection, which is particularly important for traditional financial institutions, and emphasizes that Visa will not abandon other blockchain deployments.

Gate News 消息，3 月 26 日，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）主席 Michael Selig 表示，将加密货币永续期货重新引入美国市场是该机构创新政策议程的核心组成部分。

Gate News 消息，3月26日，日本2年期国债（日本政府发行的2年期债券）收益率升至1.315%，创1996年以来新高。

Bitcoin price continues to rebound, recently reported at $71,220. ZachXBT pointed out that Circle mistakenly froze exchange wallets, involving the DFINITY ecosystem. Bloomberg analysts predict Morgan Stanley will launch a spot Bitcoin ETF, potentially being the first bank to issue such a product. Crypto market news is abundant, including Solana positioning itself as AI internet infrastructure. Investor interest in the market has weakened, with prices fluctuating around $70,000.

Gate News 消息，3 月 26 日，人民币兑美元中间价较上一交易日调降 145 个基点至 6.9056，降幅创 2024 年 11 月 11 日以来最大。

伊朗宣布无意与美国直接对话，拒绝停火提议，推动油价上涨。布伦特原油突破100美元，分析师认为美联储不会急于政策调整，尚需关注地缘政治对市场的影响。

伊朗议会民事委员会主席表示，伊朗计划通过法案对霍尔木兹海峡的船只征收通行费，以维护主权并为国家创收。法案已草拟，将完善后提交议会。此前，伊朗已开始对部分商船收取通行费，显示其对该水道的控制。

美国众议院金融服务委员会召开听证会，讨论代币化与证券未来问题，SEC主席提议"创新豁免"作为监管沙盒，以推动区块链资产的创新。意见分歧明显，支持者强调现代化和竞争力，反对者担心形成双层市场和潜在风险。业界呼吁明确监管，以防创新外移。

Recently, six wallets on Polymarket made precise positions before the U.S. attacked Iran and profited $1.2 million, then continued betting on Iranian nuclear facilities, and later coordinated $100,000 in bets predicting a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. This series of trades has triggered market concerns about information advantages and highlighted a trust crisis in prediction markets. Changes in market participants' behavior reflect worries about informed trading, and the contradiction between transparency and anonymity makes accountability difficult to trace.

BlockBeats 消息，3 月 26 日，彭博高级 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 表示，摩根士丹利旗下比特币 ETF（代码：MSBT）已获得纽约证交所（NYSE）正式上市公告。此类公告的发布通常意味着相关产品即将正式上线。

美伊战争外交解决前景渺茫，但调停方如土耳其、埃及、巴基斯坦推动双方会晤。美国对谈判积极，已暂时移除伊朗官员暗杀名单。双方诉求大幅提高，最低限度停火协议与完整议程并行推进仍可行。

花旗集团下调比特币和以太币未来12个月目标价，显示对加密市场的中期前景转为谨慎，主要因美国加密资产立法进展缓慢。比特币目标由143,000美元降至112,000美元，以太币降至3,175美元。尽管未来仍有上行空间，但缺乏新的政策催化使得价格短期可能在区间内震荡。花旗对以太币的评估更加审慎，认为其受链上活动影响较大。