Gate News reports that on March 20, according to PolyBeats monitoring, two accounts that previously made accurate predictions about the timing of U.S. strikes on Iran invested a total of $6,100 on the prediction market Polymarket. They bought “Yes” on the question “Will Iran and the U.S. cease fire before March 31?” with the current probability at 8%. One account had previously predicted the strike date precisely to the day and profited 16 times, while the other accurately bet on the outbreak date of the “Twelve-Day War” in 2025 and nearly 9 times profit. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated on X on March 11, “The only way to end this war initiated by the Zionist regime and the U.S. is to recognize Iran’s legitimate rights, pay compensation, and provide solid international guarantees to prevent future aggression.” The U.S. has not yet formally responded to Iran’s specific conditions, and its public stance remains focused on demanding Iran cease military actions immediately and cut off substantial support to proxy forces in the Middle East. Based on past trading patterns, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually happen but appears to open and close positions at certain times for profit or loss. Account addresses: 0x1fa1be3eab546e06e4290839bf4c1d7abfbf1fa9, 0xfe6eee00d36717359578ddb4d6e091d56bc9074e, with a total investment of $6,100.
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