Bitunix Analyst: Market Tightens Before PCE Release, BTC 90K Zone Becomes the Battleground for Bulls and Bears

Mars Finance News: On December 5, the US will release September PCE inflation data tonight. As the Fed’s most closely watched price indicator, the result will directly impact the December interest rate decision, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut currently holding at 87%. The market expects the core PCE annual growth rate to be around 2.8%, slightly above target but continuing a cooling trend. If the data comes in below expectations, it will strengthen the market narrative of a “soft landing” and a forming easing cycle.

On the macro level, yesterday’s weaker ADP employment data has made the market more sensitive to this inflation result. Meeting or falling below expectations will weigh on the dollar and support risk assets; if above expectations, sticky inflation could push up US Treasury yields, weaken rate cut expectations, and prompt short-term capital to avoid high-volatility assets. Overall sentiment is cautious, with liquidity waiting for events to play out before repositioning.

The crypto market continues its choppy pattern, with BTC trading at around $92,000. In the short term, the PCE response is estimated to drive 3–5% volatility. Resistance is at $93,800–95,400; if the data is dovish, a rapid test of these levels is likely. If the data is hawkish, the $90,700 and $89,000 support zones will come under pressure. Technicals are neutral to slightly weak, with futures buying dominating and spot demand still limited.

Bitunix analyst: Before the PCE release, the market has entered a compressed volatility, wait-and-see structure, with the main BTC battle zone between $91,000–95,000. If the data confirms continued inflation decline, it will increase the probability of a year-end rebound; otherwise, volatility will continue, and capital flows will shift back toward defensive and short-term allocations.