TRUMP and MELANIA meme coin plunge into the abyss, the drop to zero road is in sight?

The market in the fourth quarter of 2025 did not welcome the anticipated bull run; instead, it staged a “massacre,” with meme coins becoming one of the hardest-hit zones. The tokens TRUMP and MELANIA, based on Trump and Melania, continued their downward trend throughout the year, with declines of 78% and 96% respectively, far exceeding the zone's average decline of 58%. On-chain data shows that market speculation interest in both has plummeted by 78% to 90%, with funds clearly flowing toward emerging hotspots like Privacy Coins. Although TRUMP still has over 600,000 holders, showing some resilience, the prospects for these political meme coins remain bleak in the context of overall market liquidity shrinking, with the possibility of further declines.

2025 Meme Coin Winter: Political Concept Coins Suffer Heavy Losses

The market's optimistic expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025 have completely fallen through, replaced by a deep correction sweeping across the entire crypto space. In this market, which investors have dubbed a “bloodbath,” the meme coin zone is undoubtedly one of the hardest-hit areas. Among them, the meme coins TRUMP and MELANIA, inspired by former U.S. President Trump and his wife Melania, have extended the downward trend of 2025 into the year-end, becoming typical representatives of this bear market. Data shows that in the past 30 days, the price of MELANIA has fallen again by 39%, while TRUMP has also decreased by 32%. If we extend the timeline to the entire year, the dire situation of both is even more shocking: MELANIA has plummeted by 96% from its high at the beginning of the year, with a price remaining at only 0.11 USD; TRUMP has also dropped by 78%, trading around 5.70 USD. This performance is far inferior to Bitcoin's correction of over 30%, indicating that such assets, which are extremely dependent on market sentiment and hype, are particularly vulnerable in a bear market.

Data Reveals Capital Withdrawal: Speculative Interest Collapses Over 90%

The market's coldness is not only reflected in prices, but also in the deeper capital withdrawal and shift of investor interest, casting a heavier shadow over the future of TRUMP and MELANIA. The most direct evidence comes from the open contract data in the futures market. According to Velo data, the total open contracts related to TRUMP have shrunk from over $550 million at the beginning of 2025 to $120 million in December, indicating that market speculation interest has plummeted by 78% within a year. The situation for MELANIA is even more extreme, with its speculative interest collapsing by an astonishing 90%. The significant reduction in open contracts usually means that traders are closing positions or no longer opening new ones, which is a key signal of the market losing momentum and attention. This shift in interest is closely related to the rotation of zones within the entire crypto market. In 2025, the market focus has shifted from the frenzied hype of meme coins to zones like Privacy Coins that have practical use cases and narrative potential. Privacy coin assets like ZEC have seen explosive growth, with average annual gains in the zone reaching 192%, contrasting sharply with the average loss of 58% in the meme coin zone. Capital is always profit-driven, and when the profit effect shifts, the once-glamorous meme coins will naturally be ruthlessly abandoned.

Trump and Melania Key Data Overview

Price Performance (Year to Date)

• TRUMP Price: Down 78% from the peak, currently around 5.70 dollars
• MELANIA Price: Down 96% from its peak, currently around 0.11 USD
• Meme Coin zone average fall: 58%

Market Attention (Change in Open Interest)

• TRUMP open interest: decreased from 550 million USD to 120 million USD (a drop of 78%)
• MELANIA Open Interest: Speculative Interest Collapses 90%
• Comparison zone: The annual average yield of the Privacy Coin zone is 192%

Holder Base

• Number of TRUMP holders: over 600,000 (Data source: Solscan)
• Holder behavior: exhibiting certain “diamond hands” characteristics during a continuous fall.

A Weak Spark in Adversity: The Resilience of TRUMP Holders

Despite the bleak data landscape, on-chain analysis reveals an interesting phenomenon, leaving a glimmer of hope for the narrative of TRUMP. According to data from Solscan, despite facing significant headwinds in the past three months, the number of TRUMP Token holders still exceeds 600,000. This is a notable figure, indicating that a considerable number of investors have chosen to “lie flat” or hold long-term rather than cut losses and exit. Such “Holder” behavior is uncommon in the meme coin space, typically suggesting that some community members have a belief in the project that goes beyond short-term speculation, possibly due to support for the underlying political ideology or a firm belief that it will rebound at some point in the future (e.g., in connection with specific political events). This belief-based holding contrasts sharply with the rapid withdrawal of speculative capital in the futures market, constituting a unique stabilizing factor in the TRUMP Token economy. However, whether this “spark” can ignite a larger fire depends entirely on whether the macro market environment warms up and whether the project itself can find a new value narrative to attract incremental funds. In the current environment, relying solely on the faith of holders is insufficient to reverse the downward price trend.

Zone Rotation Revelation: Lessons from Meme Coins and the Rise of Privacy Coins

The experience of TRUMP and MELANIA is not an isolated case, but a microcosm of the structural changes in the crypto market in 2025. This dramatic rotation of zones has provided all investors with a vivid lesson in risk education. The rise of meme coins often relies on extreme liquidity, social media frenzy, and the “fear of missing out” sentiment, but these factors can quickly dissipate when monetary policy tightens or market risk appetite declines. Their lack of fundamental support is exposed in a bear market. In contrast, zones like Privacy Coins with a clear technological vision (enhancing transaction anonymity) and actual demand (responding to increasingly stringent on-chain regulations) show stronger resilience and growth potential. The strength of assets like ZEC reflects that market funds are flowing from pure speculation to a value pit that combines “narrative + practicality.” For investors, this rotation warns us that when allocating crypto assets, we need to understand the driving logic and lifecycle of different zones more deeply. Blindly chasing hotspots, especially entering when the hotspot has already peaked, is likely to make one the last player in a game of hot potato. The future market may favor projects that can tell a story in a bull run and prove their value in a bear market.