The market's bearish sentiment is rising! Bitcoin volume is declining, can it hold the $110,000 level?

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently fluctuated around 110,000 USD. Although it briefly rose to 110,300 USD during the early Asian trading session, both spot and futures volume have declined simultaneously. Additionally, on-chain activity is tightening, indicating that bearish pressure in the market is intensifying. Analysts point out that insufficient investor confidence and rising dumping pressure may lead BTC to face greater fluctuations in the short term.

Volume decline and RSI weakness: Market participation cooling down

The on-chain analytics company Glassnode reports that the Bitcoin RSI index has fallen from 37.4 to 33.6, entering the oversold territory, reflecting increased dumping pressure.

Spot volume: fell nearly 9% to 7.7 billion USD

Futures and options open interest: a simultaneous decline, indicating an increase in hedging sentiment.

Glassnode analysts pointed out that during price fluctuations, a decrease in volume usually indicates a weakening of market confidence in the current trend, with sentiment turning cautious or even bearish.

Short-term Holders (STH) Influence Rising

Data shows that the supply ratio of STH to LTH (long-term holders) has risen from 17.0% to 17.7%.

Interpretation: STH is more inclined towards short-term trading and speculation, and an increase in the ratio suggests that market Fluctuation may intensify.

Potential impact: Short-term selling pressure may be more frequent, and the price support level is facing a test.

ETF capital flow and institutional trends

Although the bearish pressure is rising, there was a reversal of capital inflow into the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF last week:

Capital outflow: nearly 1 billion USD in the previous week.

Capital inflow: Last week turned to 396 million USD

This indicates that some institutional funds are buying back at low levels, providing certain support for BTC.

Analyst's View: The Pullback May Be a Healthy Adjustment

CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán believes that the current pullback is not a signal of a cycle peak, but rather a healthy adjustment similar to those seen in historical bull markets.

NVT Ratio: Remained below 50 since July 7, indicating active on-chain activity.

MVRV Indicator: Has not yet reached the peak cycle range, meaning the price has not overheated.

Alemán emphasized that institutional adoption of the tokenization trend may drive BTC upward again in the coming months.

Short-term Key Price Level

Support level: $107,000 (recent low)

Resistance level: $112,000 (expected to test $115,000 after breakout)

Technical signals: RSI in oversold zone + ETF capital inflow may provide an opportunity for a short-term rebound, but insufficient volume remains a concern.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears: on one hand, the decrease in volume and the increase in the proportion of short-term holders have intensified bearish pressure; on the other hand, the inflow of ETF funds and strong on-chain activity leave room for a rebound in the future. In the short term, the support at $107,000 and resistance at $112,000 will be crucial in the bull-bear contest.