Daily News | The SEC's Official Twitter Account Released Fake News, BTC Instantly Dropped by 10%, Over $50M Sold Out in 1 Hour, BTC Depegged with NASDAQ Index

Crypto Daily Digest: Fake ETF news released due to the theft of the SEC’s official Twitter account, over $50 million sold out

On January 10th, due to the false news that the official Twitter account of the SEC was stolen and the Bitcoin spot ETF was approved, the price of Bitcoin fluctuates sharply. After rising nearly $48,000, it quickly fell below $45,000, with a short-term fluctuation of nearly 10%. At present, it is temporarily reported at $45,800, with a 24-hour decline of 2.7%.

According to Coinglass data, the Bitcoin market sold out $56.2 million in the past hour, with multiple orders accounting for approximately 60% of the total. The current position of Bitcoin futures is $19.74 billion, a decrease of 2.41% in the past 4 hours. Among them, CME remains the largest Bitcoin futures holding trading platform, with a holding volume of $6.12 billion and a market share of 30.99%.

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler subsequently tweeted that the SEC’s official Twitter account had been hacked and unauthorized tweets had been posted. The listing and trading of spot Bitcoin ETFs have not yet been approved. Previously, the official Twitter account of the SEC announced that Bitcoin spot ETFs had been approved for listing on all registered national stock exchanges. At present, the tweet has been deleted.

However, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas stated on his social media platform that although there are clues pointing to the theft of the SEC’s official push, he is more inclined to believe that the false news of the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs comes from within the SEC, or that he has prepared a planned tweet for SEC employees but entered the wrong date, because the wording of the tweet is in line with SEC style and is not a simple prank.

Subsequently, some netizens asked what the password for the SEC’s X platform account was, and could only answer the wrong answer. Regarding this, Musk jokes, “LFG Doge To The Moon.”

The US SEC has confirmed receipt of proposed amendments to the rules for Bitcoin spot ETFs from multiple applicants, including Invesco Galaxy, Valkyrie, Franklin, Ark 21Shares, Fidelity, VanEck, Hashdex, Wisdomtree, Bitwise, etc.

On January 9th, Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, stated that BlackRock had just resubmitted their S-1 amendment based on comments received at the last minute yesterday. At first glance, it is difficult to distinguish any changes, but what is important is that this unprecedented rapid response time of only 24 hours between submitting documents, receiving comments, and resubmitting tells us that all relevant parties are urgently pushing forward with this project.

Eric Balchunas also stated that the SEC is expected to announce the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs on Wednesday from 16:00 to 17:00 Eastern Time (5:00 to 6:00 a.m. Beijing Time on Thursday) and list them on Thursday local time.

In response, Steven McClurg, co-founder and Chief Information Officer of Valkyrie Investments, also stated that it is expected that the spot Bitcoin ETF will receive SEC approval by the end of Wednesday’s business day and begin trading on Thursday morning. He said that if trading starts on Thursday, it is expected that $200 million to $400 million of investor funds will Flow into Valkyrie’s ETF, and all participants may see $4 to $5 billion of inflows in the first few weeks.

However, Fox journalist Eleanor Terrett, who has always been on the opposite side, posted on social media stating that the five SEC members may delay the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs. The committee members include Gensler (D), Crenshaw (D), Peirce (R), Lizárraga (D), and Uyeda (R).

Although there is no formal committee vote scheduled for the ETFs, each committee member clearly has the right to review and vote for the entire committee in accordance with 17 CFR 201.431, even if the matter has been allocated and approved through authorization. This clause allows an SEC commissioner to request the entire committee to review matters authorized by staff.

Paradigm Policy Director Justin Slaughter previously stated that the SEC (like the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and most committees) can allow committee members to vote on certain matters without a formal meeting. This is a process called “seriatim.”

In the past few weeks, the market has gradually formed a consensus that whether the BTC ETF is approved or not will bring about a short-term adjustment of 20-30%. But according to EMC Labs’ on chain data analysis, the adjustment may have been completed in the past 6 weeks, manifested as a sustained fluctuation in Bitcoin prices between $41,000 and $45,000.

This result may have three major driving factors. Firstly, many investors have completed their position reduction operations in the past month, with long hands holding coins for more than 5 months experiencing concentrated selling of about 60,000 coins for the first time in the past year. Currently, this selling behavior has basically stopped; Short hands holding coins within 5 months have sold a net of over 400,000 coins in the past year, achieving full turnover during several consolidation periods during the slow rise of Bitcoin. Presently, the short-term profit margin is less than 20%, and the selling motivation is insufficient; Secondly, after January 1st, the net inflow of stablecoins accelerated, increasing by $2.1 billion per week, approaching the full month data of December and reaching 40% of the fourth quarter of 2023; Thirdly, Bitcoin continues to experience net outflows from centralized exchanges, but the net outflow is at a low level in the past six months. Or it may mean that the addition of stablecoins has not fully formed a Bitcoin purchase and will become a purchasing power support for short-term adjustments.

In summary, the current price of Bitcoin may have been adjusted in the short term after ETF approval. Even if ETFs continue to delay approval, the market adjustment may not be as significant as previously expected.

Macro: Bitcoin depegged with NASDAQ index, Deutsche Bank predicts the United States will enter a recession this year

On Tuesday, the US dollar index slightly rose and ultimately closed down 0.217% at 102.51. The US Treasury yield continued to decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield turning lower during trading, closing at 4.018%, further away from a three week high; The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rates, closed at 4.366%.

Spot gold fluctuated sideways near the 2030 level, ultimately closing up 0.11% at $2,030.34 per ounce. Spot silver continued to decline during the US session, falling below the 23 mark and closing down 0.57% at $22.97 per ounce.

The risk of overflow from the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the ongoing supply disruption in Libya continue to drive an international rebound in crude oil. WTI crude oil rose 1.84% to $72.14 per barrel, and the spot price difference of WTI crude oil has shifted to a spot premium for the first time since November last year; Brent crude oil rose 1.47% to $77.47 per barrel.

The three major US stock indexes have mixed gains and losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 0.42%, the Nasdaq slightly rising, and the S&P 500 index falling 0.15%. It is also understood that Bitcoin (BTC) has recently decoupled from the NASDAQ (NDX) index, ending the trend of synchronous movement with the Wall Street Technology Heavy Stock Index for most of the past four years.

According to data tracked by Fairlead Strategies, the 40 day correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ is currently zero, indicating a lack of correlation between these two asset classes. Since the beginning of 2020, the correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ has been positively correlated, reaching a peak of 0.8 during the crypto bear market in 2022.

The collapse of correlation also means that Bitcoin can now serve as a diversification tool for investment portfolios. Fairlead Strategies expects Bitcoin to remain unaffected by NASDAQ for a period of time.

Regarding the recent heated discussions by the Federal Reserve about a soft landing of the US economy, Deutsche Bank stated in a report on Monday that historical experience shows that this trend often occurs before a recession.

The bank’s report pointed out that lower inflation, strong employment data, and signs that the Federal Reserve will shift towards interest rate cuts this year have driven this statement, and pointed out that news articles are increasingly mentioning a “soft landing.” Similar trends occurred before the economic recession in the early 1990s, early 21st century, and 2008. And it is believed that the risk of the United States falling into an economic recession is higher than in 2022 or 2023.

It is expected that the United States will enter a recession this year, but any recession may be mild or not have a significant impact on the market.