Recently, the Bitcoin market has once again demonstrated its unpredictable nature. This morning at 8:47 AM, the price of Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $116,000 mark, setting a new high, but quickly retreated. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin hovers around $115,600, highlighting the indecision among market participants.

From a technical analysis perspective, the 5-minute candlestick chart shows that Bitcoin is operating below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at $115,800, with bearish sentiment slightly prevailing in the short term. The contraction of the Bollinger Bands indicates that the market may be accumulating energy in preparation for the upcoming new market cycle. The MACD indicator suggests that short-term adjustment pressure still exists. However, from the 4-hour time frame, the ascending channel since the low of $107,300 at the end of August remains valid, with multiple period moving averages displaying a bullish arrangement, providing solid support for the price.

On a macroeconomic level, the U.S. August Producer Price Index ( PPI ) unexpectedly fell by 0.1%, a figure that has fueled market expectations for a Fed rate cut. The interest rate futures market shows that traders are betting on an 88% chance that the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points, with even a 12% chance of a 50 basis point cut. This constitutes a positive factor for the Bitcoin market. However, investors still need to closely monitor the U.S. August Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) data set to be released tonight at 20:30, as historical data shows that Bitcoin often experiences a decline after this indicator is released.

In terms of capital flow, on September 11, the net inflow of funds into the exchange reached 59.09 million USD, reversing the trend of continuous outflow of funds in previous weeks. This may be a preparation by the market for potential fluctuations brought by the CPI data. However, the sharp decline in the market sentiment index indicates that investors' attitudes are becoming cautious, and this divergence may signal that significant market movements are on the horizon.

In the short term, CPI data will become a key catalyst. If the data is below expectations, Bitcoin may break through resistance levels and push towards higher price points; if it is above expectations, it may test immediate support levels, and if it falls below, it could further decline. Short-term traders can consider $115,000 as a pivotal point for bulls and bears, while medium to long-term investors should pay attention to the $113,500 support level. As long as it stays above this level, the overall upward structure remains intact, and pullbacks may provide opportunities for accumulation.

Despite the current market being full of uncertainties, the long-term outlook remains optimistic. South Korea has lifted restrictions on cryptocurrency companies, and traditional financial institutions are increasingly accepting cryptocurrencies, all of which support the long-term development of Bitcoin. Although $116,000 currently poses a resistance, breaking through this level may just be a matter of time. In this market environment filled with opportunities and challenges, investors need to stay vigilant while also maintaining confidence in long-term development.