Looking back at history, the Fed's interest rate cuts can generally be divided into two types: preventive cuts and crisis response cuts. The former, such as in 1990, 1995, and 2019, are mainly aimed at preventing potential risks and often inject new vitality into the market; the latter, such as in 2001 and 2008, are drastic cuts that had to be taken under the pressure of financial crises, accompanied by significant market fluctuations.

The current economic environment seems to lean more towards a scenario of preventive interest rate cuts. Although the labor market shows signs of weakness and tariffs and geopolitical factors bring some uncertainty, inflation has begun to show signs of easing. It is this relatively mild environment that has supported the strong performance of risk assets this year, with both Bitcoin and US stocks reaching new highs.

The cryptocurrency market is at a unique stage of development. The policy environment has shown unprecedented positive signals for the first time: stablecoins are gradually incorporated into the regulatory framework, the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) and corporate allocation strategies represented by MicroStrategy are becoming increasingly popular, institutional investors are officially entering the market through ETFs, and the trend of tokenizing real-world assets (RWA) is also accelerating. These diversified developments lay a broader and more solid foundation for the market than ever before.

Despite the market's debate over the potential interest rate cut in September and its short-term impact on the crypto market, concerns from a capital flow perspective may be exaggerated. The size of U.S. money market funds has reached a record $7.2 trillion, with a large amount of funds trapped in low-risk instruments. Historical experience shows that outflows from money market funds are often positively correlated with the rise of risk assets. As the expectation of interest rate cuts gradually materializes, this portion of funds is likely to seek higher-yield investment opportunities.

Overall, although the market faces some uncertainties, the current economic environment and policy trends seem to create favorable conditions for further development of the crypto market. However, investors still need to be cautious and closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes to make informed investment decisions.