Bitcoin launches the $122,000 offensive! This Thursday, the four major U.S. economic indicators will determine the outcome of the bulls and bears | BTC price prediction

Bitcoin price once again tested the key level of $122,000. Whether it can break through and stabilize at recent highs will depend on several significant economic data to be released in the U.S. this week. CPI inflation, PPI producer prices, retail sales, and initial unemployment claims data will collectively shape the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, thereby affecting the liquidity environment in the crypto market. Analysts warn that higher-than-expected inflation data could trigger a pullback in crypto assets, while weak data may become a catalyst for Bitcoin to break historical highs.

( Bitcoin is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with economic data becoming a key variable ) The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to recover recent highs, currently trading above the $122,000 mark. However, whether this round of cryptocurrency asset bullish trend can continue or even break through previous highs will heavily depend on several key U.S. economic indicators to be released this week.

As Bitcoin increasingly becomes a mainstream asset for institutional investors, the influence of U.S. economic data on the crypto market has significantly increased. The correlation between institutional capital flows and macroeconomic policies is becoming a core factor affecting Bitcoin prices.

(The four major US economic indicators that may disrupt the crypto market this week)

(This week's US economic signals | Source: MarketWatch) MarketWatch data shows that this week multiple U.S. economic signals will be released intensively, each of which may have a unique impact on the crypto market:

1. CPI Inflation Data (Released on Tuesday): This week's most important crypto market barometer will directly impact the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. Economists predict a year-on-year CPI increase of 2.8% in July, up from 2.7% in June. Goldman Sachs holds the same view. This expectation partly stems from the transmission effects of Trump's tariff policy (the new round of tariffs takes effect on August 7). Private equity fund manager Peter Tarr pointed out: "CPI inflation data is coming on Tuesday! Economists' consensus believes that tariffs have pushed up July's CPI."
   • Impact on crypto market: If the reading exceeds expectations (>2.8%), it will boost the dollar and put downward pressure on Bitcoin prices. If the reading is below June's 2.7%, it may trigger a rebound in crypto assets. Analyst BitBull interprets: "After the recent unemployment data, the probability of a rate cut in September has reached 91%. If the CPI is lower than expected, it will confirm the rate cut in September, boosting the rise of risk assets. If the CPI is higher than expected, the rate cut probability and encryption prices will decline simultaneously. Given the recent rise in unemployment rate, the CPI is expected to decrease, which is beneficial for the market." However, Tarr believes that as investors gradually digest the expectations of rising inflation in the U.S., its impact may weaken.
2. PPI Producer Price Index (to be released on Thursday): A leading indicator of inflation. If producer costs continue to inflate, it may force the Fed to extend tightening policies, impacting liquidity-sensitive crypto assets such as Bitcoin. Economists predict that PPI will be higher than the 2.3% recorded in June. Institutional Capital Flows warns: "The bond rally triggered by non-farm data is gradually fading, and this week's core CPI and PPI are expected to be higher than previous values. The key is: the market and the Fed will begin to realize that inflation risk is greater than recession risk."
   • Impact on the crypto market: Just as an unexpected CPI may alter the Fed's interest rate cut path, a rise in PPI will similarly exacerbate inflation concerns, negatively impacting the crypto market.
3. Retail Sales Data (to be released on Friday): Reflects consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy, directly impacting market sentiment. A MarketWatch survey shows economists predict a 0.5% month-over-month increase in July retail sales, slightly lower than the 0.6% in June.
   • Crypto Market Impact: History shows that 0.5% is still a strong reading, suggesting the economy has not shown significant signs of slowing down. If the data exceeds expectations (>0.5%), it will reinforce the narrative of a strong economy, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, while putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin. If it falls short of expectations, it will enhance the Fed's dovish stance, benefiting Bitcoin and other riskier crypto assets.
4. Initial Jobless Claims (released on Thursday): The labor market's influence on the crypto market is increasing, and this week's initial claims data is crucial. This indicator measures the number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits in the previous week. As of the week ending August 2, the data was 226,000. Meanwhile, the number of continuing claims surged by 38,000 to 1.97 million for the week ending July 26, reaching the highest level since November 2021. MarketWatch data shows that economists predict last week's figures rose slightly to 229,000. Market observers believe that this indicator has stabilized in recent weeks.
   • crypto market impact: Stable but slightly rising initial jobless claims data suggests a cooling labor market, which may enhance Fed rate cut bets, providing support for Bitcoin's increase.

( Current Market Dynamics and Outlook ) As of the time of writing, the trading price of Bitcoin is $122,029, with an increase of 3.44% in the past 24 hours. Both sides in the crypto market are fiercely battling at key price levels, with trading volume significantly increasing.

( Conclusion ) The battle for the $122,000 Bitcoin level has entered a heated phase, and the intense release of U.S. economic data this week will become the core variable determining the short-term direction of the crypto market. CPI and PPI data will directly shape Fed's expectations for a rate cut in September, while retail sales and unemployment data will paint a picture of economic resilience. For crypto traders, it is essential to be wary of pullback risks triggered by unexpectedly high inflation data, while also paying attention to breakthrough opportunities that may arise from weak data. The sensitivity of institutional funds to macroeconomic policies has elevated the influence of economic indicators on the crypto market to unprecedented heights, making the combination of on-chain data monitoring and macro analysis the key to success.