Foresight News 消息,Willy Woo 发推表示,将比特币熊市划分为三个阶段对于判断周期很有帮助。第一阶段——熊市开端,此时比特币的流动性已然崩溃(这一情况发生在 2025 年第三季度),价格也随之开始下跌。比特币是一种规模较小的资产,因此对流动性极度敏感。正因如此,它往往领先全球宏观经济步入熊市,通常要早好几个月。换句话说,当聪明资金撤资时,比特币会迅速做出反应。聪明资金也可能从股票市场撤资,但股票市场不会迅速作出反应。在这一阶段,长期极度看涨者会盲目地声称这只是更大牛市中的一次回调,却拿不出任何资金流入的有力证据,只会空谈一些说辞。
第二阶段——此时全球股市转入熊市。由于股市是一个规模高达 100 万亿美元的庞大市场,它就像一艘巨型超级油轮,行动迟缓。这是比特币熊市的中期阶段,此时所有风险资产都在下跌,毫无疑问我们已身处熊市之中。第三阶段——隧道尽头的曙光。在这一阶段流动性开始好转,资金流出达到峰值并开始企稳。投资者正在回流。这一阶段通常会出现最后一次价格暴跌(投降式抛售),要么发生在资金流出峰值之前,要么稍晚于峰值。按照这个熊市框架来看,比特币目前处于第一阶段,且接近第二阶段。
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