#我的周末交易计划 Current Market Situation: The 70,000 Psychological Dam is Critical, Technical Breakdown Risks Surge

In the early hours of this morning during the Asia-Pacific session, BTC bulls completely lost the 70,000 USD defense line. Major exchange prices briefly probed down to around 69,200 USD, followed by a modest rebound but consistently lingering below 70,000, with extremely weak counter-attack momentum from bulls. Technically, the previously sustained uptrend channel and ascending wedge pattern have confirmed breakdowns, indicating that short-term buying power is completely exhausted. The chart has experienced multiple rebounds to around 70,485 USD at moving average levels, only to be suppressed by large-scale sell-offs with no signs of establishing a foothold.

Most critical risk point: If this week's closing price fails to strongly reclaim above 70,000 USD, the technical breakdown will be completely confirmed. Combined with low market liquidity over the weekend, it can easily trigger algorithmic selling from quantitative funds and futures markets, potentially triggering a cascade of declines—this is the biggest landmine at present.

On-Chain Signals: Ancient Whales Exit, New Capital Counter-Trend Accumulation, Massive Chip Restructuring

This decline is not a one-sided bearish trend, but rather a typical deep chip rotation between old and new capital. On-chain data reveals two sharply contrasting key signals:

Bearish Selling Pressure: Ancient Whales Concentrate and Exit Multiple "Bitcoin veteran-level whales" holding positions for over 10 years have recently intensified transfers to exchanges for liquidation. Just one whale that started holding since 2013 directly sold 1,000 BTC this week, equivalent to over 71.6 million USD; another early investor simultaneously sold 650 BTC. This long-term position liquidation has dealt a severe blow to market sentiment.

Bullish Support: New Whales Bottom-Fish Counter-Trend Just as market panic spreads, on-chain monitoring detected large capital counter-trend going long: A well-known whale went long 2,601.5 BTC at an average price of 70,016 USD, involving over 183 million USD in capital, betting on technical recovery following short-term oversold conditions.

Core Interpretation: Around 70,000 USD is precisely the key cost zone for Bitcoin long-term holders, so simultaneous with selling pressure, buying support continues to enter the market. The market is not completely turning bearish but rather completing chip reshuffling. The subsequent direction entirely depends on weekend capital allocation choices.

Macro + Derivatives: Risk-Off Sentiment Maximized, Bearish Sentiment Reaches Cycle High

The external macro environment is completely suppressing risk assets, becoming the biggest obstacle to BTC's rise: Middle East geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate, international oil prices surge continuously, directly pushing up US inflation expectations; CME rate tools show market probability of Fed April rate hikes surged directly from 0% to 12%. Rising rate hike expectations form a deadly suppression on high-risk assets like crypto.

Options market bearish sentiment exploded with the put/call open interest ratio climbing to 0.77, reaching the highest level since June 2021! Numerous traders frantically buy put options for downside protection, fully illustrating how intense institutional and whale concerns are about subsequent declines.

Weekend Bull/Bear Scenarios

Downside Scenario (Current Probability Favored)
Trigger conditions: Price continuously fails to reclaim 70,000 USD, rebounds encountering resistance around 71,000 USD and falls back.
Downside targets: After effective breakdown of 70,000, first support at 68,000 USD; if panic sentiment spreads, likely slides toward 63,000-65,000 USD range, completely aligning with theoretical targets post-channel breakdown.
Key warning: The 66,000 USD level highlighted by analysts is the final defense line. Once breached, may welcome a 10%-20% deep correction.

Upside Scenario (Requires Positive Catalysts)
Trigger conditions: Positive surprise over the weekend, price firmly holds above 71,500 USD, simultaneously breaking above the 50-period moving average.
Upside targets: After breaking through 75,000 USD resistance, may challenge the 88,000-90,000 USD previous highs.

Weekend market liquidity is poor with volatility easily amplified. Strictly prohibit heavy positions or full positions. Must use stop-losses, no single-direction betting, no holding through pain!

Operation Approach

Short-term: No blind bottoming below 70,000 USD. Light short positions at 70,500-71,000 USD resistance, stop-loss at 71,500 USD; if firmly holding above 70,000, then follow up with long positions.

Medium to long-term: Staged deployment in 63,000-65,000 USD range, near long-term holder cost lines with higher margin of safety.

The next 24-48 hours mark the critical decision period for the market. Focus on closing prices and large capital movements, adjust strategy accordingly.